Category: Japan

ZAKZAK reports (as have other news outlets) that the DPJ’s annual convention has been something less than a show of unity (not that the LDP’s convention, which starts tomorrow, is likely to be any more amicable). The most colorful of comments came from Lower House member Kansei Nakano, who disapproved of the DPJ’s latest ad campaign: “If I ask 100 people all 100 would say, ‘What the hell is that? It’s a waste of taxpayer dollars!'”

You can watch the aforementioned waste right here (courtesy transpacificradio) You can tell it makes no sense even if you don’t understand Japanese:

Another member complained that the public has decided that the LDP is no good, but that the DPJ isn’t all that great either.

Yomiuri explains the intraparty discontent as stemming from the party’s continuing low poll numbers — though one recent TBS (slightly left-leaning) poll held that 47% of people “want the opposition parties to beat the LDP” (vs 45% who wanted the LDP to win), another perhaps more reliable figure is the Yomiuri poll comparing DPJ support with LDP support. That figure gives the DPJ just 12% support versus the LDP’s approx. 48%.

But the unnamed DPJ official has a point that gets to the heart of the DPJ’s troubles – they look like just another LDP with the exception that they have zero experience running the country. Although the party has always had internal divisions (not that much different from the LDP in that regard), the DPJ has nevertheless presented an image of a left-of-center party that carries none of the LDP’s baggage (patronage, ultrarightists in the ranks, close relationship with the entrenched bureaucracy, etc). What’s more, the party has represented Japan’s shift to a 2-party system in which the major parties compete on policy rather than through backdoor deals and stable electioneering. This idea has enjoyed broad support in theory as a part of Japan’s supposed transition from a bureaucracy-dominated development state to a “normal country,” even if in practice the second party has yet to win the premiership.

Now DPJ President Ozawa, a former senior LDP man himself, is preparing to try and beat the LDP at its own game as he puts his “political life on the line” to win the July Upper House elections, reports ZAKZAK. If the DPJ wins the upper house, it will attempt to then force a lower house election and take the reins of government.

To that end, in addition to teaming up with the more minor opposition parties (and of course putting their best face forward as the top opposition party in the Diet), Ozawa has secured candidacies from people hailing from traditional LDP support bases (such as the Jaycees), in an attempt to split the “organizational votes.” He is also appealing to anti-Koizumi forces within those support groups by pushing for populist policies like “raising Japan’s food self sufficiency” through pro-farmer reforms.

So under Ozawa’s leadership the DPJ would become an anti-structural reform party that courts votes from the same groups that have been lining up for a slice of the pie from the LDP. Oh, and they are for a more active Japanese role in international peacekeeping efforts, very similar to the LDP’s policy of pushing for a more proactive defense posture and allowing for collective defense. Just what would be difference with the LDP at that point? Well, there is one thing: the DPJ has never formed a coalition with the Soka Gakkai-backed Komeito. But depending on the party distribution that results after the upper house election (and possible but unlikely general election that could follow), the DPJ could be in a position to grab the government with the little extra push that the Komeito could provide. What’s to stop Ozawa, whose former party Shinshinto was once in an election tie-up with the Komeito, from former just such a coalition with the Komeito, which wants to cozy up to the party in power no matter who it is?

Well, rest assured that the DPJ rank and file, far from walking in lock-step with their leader, are thinking about these issues, and some don’t like seeing Ozawa sully what’s left of their party’s credibility to rig the system just to put Ichiro Ozawa in power. Or maybe they’re just mad because it looks that way. Whatever the case, Hatoyama has made the startling statement (in the Nikkei no less) that the party’s future would be in serious jeopardy if the DPJ shows poorly in the election. They’ve had 4 years since taking their present shape in 2003 to win the government, and so far it’s proven a tough task. Though Ozawa’s attempts to virtually pimp out the DPJ could very well work, is it worth throwing out the baby (a 2-party system in which political parties compete on policy) out with the bathwater?

Personally, I don’t think the DPJ would be considering such radical changes if it weren’t for it’s stumbles over the past year and change. Up until the Sept 2005 lower house elections, in which Koizumi’s powerful call for postal reform was the overwhelming issue, the DPJ had been gradually gaining seats in both houses under the leadership of Kan Naoto, Yuki Hatoyama, and Katsuya Okada. After the 2005 election, however, the party lost its direction and selected youthful defense policy wonk Seiji Maehara to lead them, and after Maehara mishandled a scandal in early 2006 Ozawa replaced him and was seen as an elder who had the wherewithal to get things done. If Ozawa’s tactics work, he’ll clearly be seen as a genius and the party may see itself transformed. If not, I’d like to see Kan or Hatoyama make a comeback, perhaps away from the DPJ. (And if Koizumi makes a comeback, as some hopeful rumors contend, the DPJ might as well just go home as they wouldn’t stand a chance!)