Adamu – Page 27 – Mutantfrog Travelogue

Ideas to save Japan’s economy

There has been no shortage of ideas to shore up Japan’s economy in the face of the global economic slowdown and the general collapse of exports, Japan’s main engine of growth over the past few years. Let’s look at some of them.

Today’s Nikkei (p. 3) featured a government-convened expert panel featuring the elite leaders of top corporate think tanks, gathered to provide ideas on how to approach additional fiscal economic recovery spending. Their suggestions ranged from the mundane to the borderline extreme to Andy Rooney-ish whining:

Motoshige Ito, Tokyo University Professor: Temporarily waive gift taxes to encourage the elderly to hand their financial assets to their children and grandchildren. Then the money will be used for consumption and help spur domestic demand.
Yuri Okina, Research Director, Chief Senior Economist at Japan Research Institute: Push domestic demand by creating jobs in child care, medicine, and elderly care. Specifically, improve day care services and digitize medical records.
Ryutaro Kono, Chief Economist of BNP Pariba – 1.2 million yen in handouts to each unemployed person. Build health care, elderly care, and education into growth industries through deregulation.
Akihiko Tanaka, Tokyo University Professor: Revamp scholarship systems to attract the best foreign students. Expand slots open to students with recommendations and speed up the application and selection process for foreign students.
Iwao Nakatani, Director of Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting (“one of the leading opinion leaders of Japan”) – Raise the consumption tax to 20% and issue a refund of 200,000 yen per person. Eliminate the system of 47 prefectures and reorganize the country into 300 “han” domains, while shrinking central government functions.
Mitsuhiro Fukao (PDF), President of Japan Center for Economic Research: Institute a negative interest rate policy, by which a 2% tax would be levied on government-guaranteed financial assets. Focus any fiscal efforts on employment policy. Encourage a shift in employment toward medical and elderly care sectors.
Richard Khoo, Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute: Continue fiscal support until “balance sheets are improved.” Encourage supply of sturdy, long-lasting housing to expand consumption and maintain household assets.
Robert Feldman, managing director of economic research at Morgan Stanley Japan – Increase productivity and build up demand in agriculture, medical, and financial sectors. Aggressively promote preventive medicine. The national health insurance program should charge extra to smokers.

In terms of short-term means to ensure a smooth transition during the dip in the business cycle, the Nikkei has called for increased funding of employment training, not to mention using the fiscal stimulus money to fund priority infrastructure projects, and avoid a repeat of the white elephants of the 1990s. Here is what the Nikkei thinks should happen in terms of constructions projects:

PROJECT: Enhance earthquake protection of schools and other public institutions. BENEFIT: They’ll be the last buildings standing when the big one hits Tokyo.
PROJECT: Examine and fix the nation’s 140,000 road bridges. BENEFIT: Many bridges are aging and need it, and we don’t want a Minneapolis on our hands.
PROJECT: Bury power lines, giving priority to tourist areas. BENEFIT: Prettier streets, plus this would prevent accidents somehow.
PROJECT: Complete the beltway around Tokyo, starting with the Nerima-Setagaya area that feeds into the Tomei. BENEFIT: This would “almost totally resolve” inner city congestion and increase the average speed of Tokyo roads by 30%.
PROJECT: Expand both Haneda and Narita airports, and improve rail services to them. BENEFIT: 30% more landing/takeoff capacity, better access.

Whether this would actually raise the level of construction employment as opposed to merely keeping it steady, it is unclear.

But I do like the Nikkei approach to avoid building castles in the sky. They have also called for massive government support of solar and other “green” technologies.

Here’s what one analyst had to say:

Japan Economy May Have Bottomed Out in Feb.: Economist
Thursday, March 12, 2009 5:59 PM

(Source: Jiji Press English News Service)Tokyo, March 12 (Jiji Press)–The Japanese economy appears to have hit bottom in February as a result of inventory adjustments by automakers, Yuji Shimanaka of Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. said in an interview with Jiji Press.

…

Noting that a key point for production is when vehicle output cuts end, Shimanaka said production cuts will be smaller from now on. Production and the economy, therefore, are both likely to have hit bottom in February, he said.
The Japanese economy is expected to recover because the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan are both expected to call for economic stimulus measures totaling some 10 trillion yen, he said.
He said he believes that the Bank of Japan will take further monetary easing measures and that the Chinese economy will show clear signs of recovery.
But Japan needs measures to boost its economy as the recovery is likely to be weak, he said, adding that the country needs a stimulus package worth 10 trillion yen on a fiscal spending basis.
Japan should use 4 trillion yen for public projects and 6 trillion yen for tax cuts and other measures, he said.
Japan should focus more on creating jobs in the construction industry, to which 10 pct of its workforce belongs, he said.

In the Nikkei’s New Year editorial series they noted that crises are times when the ideas that fuel future prosperity are often born. This might not happen by the decree of senior economists but from spontaneous invention by someone somewhere in the world.

It’s official – Roppongi is a pit of vipers

A warning came today from the US Embassy:

Date: March 17, 2009

This is to inform the American community that the U.S. Embassy has recommended that the embassy community avoid frequenting Roppongi bars and clubs in Tokyo due to a significant increase in reported drink-spiking incidents. American citizens may choose to avoid frequenting drinking establishments in this area as well.

The number of reports of U.S. citizens being drugged in bars has increased significantly in recent weeks. Typically, the victim unknowingly drinks a beverage that has been secretly mixed with a drug that renders the victim unconscious for several hours, during which time large sums of money are charged to the victim’s credit card or the card is stolen outright. Victims sometimes regain consciousness in the bar or club, while at other times the victim awakens on the street.

Because this type of crime is already widespread in Roppongi bars and is on the rise, the U.S. Embassy has recommended that members of the embassy community avoid frequenting drinking establishments in this area. American citizens may consider this recommendation as it applies to their own behavior. If you, nevertheless, choose to participate in Roppongi night life, we urge you to remain extra vigilant of your surroundings and maintain a high level of situational awareness. Establishments in the area of Roppongi Intersection (Roppongi Dori and Gaienhigashi-dori) have had the highest level of reported incidents.

Need I say more?

Reverse alchemy in action

UPDATE: Nevermind, this is apparently something to do with the real World of Warcraft!

I thought this ad for a bottom-feeding gold buyer had an interesting Heavy Metal theme to it. I guess they want people to think of their “service” as medieval-style alchemy, only in reverse:

Or maybe the WOW is supposed to stand for “World of Warcraft.” Are they expecting unemployed lardasses to pawn their mom’s jewelry so they can keep playing?

But let’s be serious — NEVER sell your gold to a random site on the Internet — they won’t pay good prices!!! Here is a good debunking of the scam:

A little online sleuthing finds that I’m not the only one who figures that if Cash4Gold has this much money to spend on TV ads, someone’s getting the short end of the stick, and it’s probably the people sending in their family heirlooms to be melted into ingots. The folks at Cockeyed.com put Cash4Gold to the test, rounding up a bunch of old rings, necklaces, and earrings, and taking them to a regular pawn shop to be appraised. The offer: $198 for the lot. They then sent the items to Cash4Gold and waited for a check in the mail. It arrived within a few days as promised… in the amount of 60 bucks. (You don’t have to accept the check; the deal isn’t done until you cash it.)

That price alone is practically criminal, but that’s where the truly slimy part of the operation begins. First, if you call Cash4Gold and ask for your stuff back, you abruptly get a better offer: In the case of the above experiment, the offer was a whopping $178. That’s a better deal, but still not market rate, though the caller was told that Cash4Gold could “manipulate the numbers on their end” to make it appear that more product was sent than was in reality. Bizarre, but it’s really the only way Cash4Gold can cover its behind to convince you the original offer wasn’t a wholesale ripoff.

For once, North Korea has a point – what IS Tamogami doing teaming up with the abductee families?

(UPDATE: In case you didn’t notice, Japan got totally SLAMMED by NK in these articles)

The AFP:

NKorea slams Japan over kidnap issue
Tue Mar 10, 9:56 am ET
SEOUL (AFP) – North Korea accused Japan Tuesday of raising an outcry over the abduction of its civilians in an attempt to find a pretext for recolonising the peninsula.

The North said its military would launch a “merciless” strike on Japan if the former colonial power “dare pre-empt an attack” on the communist country.

The warning came as relatives of a Japanese woman kidnapped by North Korea arrived in South Korea in an attempt to clarify her fate.

Japan, which colonised the Korean peninsula 1910-1945, is trying to find an “absurd” excuse to realise its ambitions for re-invasion, the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said in a commentary, without referring to the case of Yaeko Taguchi.

“Japan’s noisy and disturbing trumpeting about ‘the abduction issue’ is nothing but a prelude to its operation to stage a comeback to Korea,” the agency said.

…

Taguchi‘s family will meet Kim Hyun-Hee, a pardoned former spy for the North, in the southern city of Busan on Wednesday.

Taguchi’s elder brother Shigeo Iizuka, 70, and her son, Koichi Iizuka, 32, arrived in Busan along with Japanese officials, Yonhap news agency said.

Pyongyang has admitted kidnapping Taguchi in 1978 when she was 22 to train its spies, but said she died in a car crash in July 1986.

But the ex-spy Kim, who had taken Japanese lessons from Taguchi, has said in interviews with local media that Taguchi was alive until at least 1987.

The article makes it sound like the North is plainly spitting in the face of the abduction victim families. But not even North Korea is that tone-deaf. No, their style is much more Norimitsu Onishi than Cruella DeVille. The actual KCNA story says nothing about the PR efforts of the abduction victims and concentrates only the recent statement of someone we’ve covered here before:

KCNA Slams Japanese Militarists’ Agitation of War

Tamogami, former chief of staff of the Air “Self-Defense Force”, in a recent lecture given on the subject of “the abduction issue”, let loose a spate of reckless remarks calling on Japan to “take the posture of attacking north Korea by mobilizing the SDF.”

These are unpardonable outbursts which can be heard only from a man who is hell-bent on the moves to escalate the confrontation with the DPRK and start a war against it.

As well known to the world, Tamogami is a wicked Right-wing reactionary cursed and censured at home and abroad for having spoken for the Japanese militarist forces of late.

What he uttered is peppered with a spate of sophism intended to turn Japan into a military power and realize overseas expansion let loose by the successive Japanese reactionaries ranging from reckless remarks shamelessly whitewashing their past war of aggression to outbursts claiming access to nuclear weapons and the exercise of the “right to collective self-defense.”

Tomogami’s utterances indicate that the Japanese reactionaries’ wild ambition to conquer the Korean Peninsula and other countries in Asia and the rest of the world has reached an extreme phase. This is not only a blatant challenge to the DPRK’s sovereignty but a serious threat to the peace and security of Asia.

…

The provocative jargon let loose by Tamogami suffices to prove that he is an offspring of those who advocated the militarization of the Japanese society and the process to turn it reactionary and an icon of militarist Japan bereft of the normal way of thinking and off the track of normal development.

The AFP sees a timing decision in this KCNA story, but I am sure the KCNA editors would argue that Tamogami’s timing is too perfect as he is raising his voice at a time of heightened tensions and on a day when the morning news shows all feature the tearful meeting between the plane bomber and the abduction victims. Here is what he said during the February 28 speech specifically on the abduction issue to 250 people at an event sponsored by a “citizens’ group” in Nagoya:

“The abduction issue will not be resolved unless we show (North Korea) a posture that we will beat you to a pulp, even if we have to mobilize the Self Defense Forces.”… When asked specifically what he meant by “beat you to a pulp,” he stated, “North Korea will not budge unless we show the posture that we will use the Self Defense Forces to attack.”

Interestingly, Teruaki Masumoto, secretary general of the abductee families association and younger brother of an abductee, seemed to agree with Tamogami: “If we could mobilize our Self Defense Force in the same manner as other countries, we could have sunk the spy ships and considerably lessened the number of abductees.”

That North Korea is the detested rogue state that actually perpetrated the kidnappings (and likely murdered/forced suicide on many of them, all under state sponsorship) goes without saying. Nothing can be more absurd than the KCNA’s fantasy of having credibility on this issue, or on just about any issue for that matter. But while it is always perilous to see North Korea’s side of any debate, I want to emphasize two things:

This insistence on characterizing the most radical right wing elements in Japan as the voice of an influential group who could incite warlike rage in the Japanese populace at a moment’s notice is typical of many “liberal” Japan observers, and it’s no less wrong when they do it. If anything, the far right engages in guerrilla PR tactics to wedge the Japanese government toward one policy or another. That is hardly the image of a group that’s in control. It’s one of the ultimate arguments to keep Japan a weakened client state and it’s a powerful one at that.
To that end, the abduction victims’ movement doesn’t seem to be helping assuage such concerns. Have the victims’ groups ever met a right-wing demagogue they didn’t like? You have to wonder how far they are willing to take their campaign to prioritize this issue over a possible nuclear showdown. Far from denouncing Tamogami’s comment, the groups appear to be welcoming him into the fold (perhaps a smart move for someone with right-wing political ambitions). On March 6, a week after the controversial comment, leaders of two such groups joined Tamogami for a rally to save the abduction victims. His speech title: “Correct Historical Recognition and the Abduction Issue.”

Japan exports compared internationally – OUCH

Just saw this chart in an FT article about Malaysia:

Not good! Also, they seem to have taken a bigger hit than Brazil as well:

But Brazilians might beat their own record in the first quarter of 2009, as a thrifty American consumer and less demand for oil have hit Brazil hard. Overall exports fell 26 percent in the first two months of this year, and they make up one-third of GDP.

Japan’s exports only make up about 16% of GDP, so the impact of a year-on-year 46% drop would be equivalent to a 23% drop in Brazil, but it’s still a near halving of the driver of economic growth over the past few years, and other aspects of Japan’s economy such as domestic consumption or the public sector (depending on government action) seem to offer little hope.

Animated Japanese population pyramid, 1930-2055

Check out this animated GIF showing the age breakdown of Japan’s population for 1930-2055, courtesy of the National Institue of Population and Social Security Research (click for full size; males are on the left, females on the right).

When it got to 2055, I almost expected it to topple over!

Oricon Survey – professional Japanese want to get more exercise, stop wasting money, quit their jobs

ZAKZAK reports on a recent Oricon online “monitor” survey of professionals aged 20-49. When asked a multiple-answer question on what activities they want to “graduate from” (read: grow out of), they gave the following top responses:

Lack of exercise (37.9%)
Wasteful spending (27.8%)
Being too easy on myself (26.4%)
Between-meal snacks (23.3%)
Negative thinking (20.4%)
Being single (19.9%)
Wasting time (18.8%)
My current workplace (18.3%)
Habit of skipping things/being lazy about doing things (18.3%, tied for 8th)
Staying up too late (16.5%)

The poll is positioned as a list of graduation season resolutions, as March is the time when most schools hold their graduation ceremonies just ahead of the new fiscal/scholastic year in April.

What the hell is happening in NK?

Reading this FT article makes it sound as if NK is acting seriously belligerent:

North Korea on Monday cut its military hotline to Seoul and put its million-man army at battle stations, ratcheting up tensions as South Korean and US troops began war games that Pyongyang warned could spark open conflict.

UN forces last week tried to counter North Korean claims that the exercises were a smokescreen for an invasion by promising to keep the hotline open, giving Pyongyang advance warning of anything that could cause a misunderstanding.

North Korea’s official KCNA news agency quoted an army spokesman as saying: “It is nonsensical to maintain the normal channels of communication when the South Korean puppets are in a frenzy about these military exercises, levelling their guns at fellow countrymen in league with foreign forces.”

Severing military communications had an immediate effect on workers trying to reach South Korea’s investment zone at Kaesong in North Korea. Some 726 South Koreans could not reach their factories in Kaesong on Monday because all crossings require clearance on the military hotline.

The communist state also warned that any attempt to shoot down a rocket it plans to launch soon would be an act of war. Pyongyang argues it is simply planning to blast a satellite into space whereas spies insist this is a ruse for testing the Taepodong-2 long-range missile, which could hit Alaska.

South Korea said it deeply regretted North Korea’s moves and sought the immediate resumption of traffic to and from Kaesong.

“As we have mentioned several times, the US-South Korean exercises are defensive in nature and are part of annual training,” said Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for the unification ministry.

Even by its own standards, Pyongyang’s rhetoric has been exceptionally bellicose during recent months.

The reclusive state has torn up its non-aggression pacts with the South, vowed not to recognise a tense maritime border and last week said it could not guarantee the safety of South Korean passenger aircraft in its airspace. Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s dictator, is furious that Lee Myung-bak, South Korea’s conservative president, has not courted him in the manner of previous leftwing administrations and has made vital aid to the North contingent on progress in talks about dismantling Pyongyang’s atomic work. Although it tested its first nuclear device in 2006, most military experts do not believe Pyongyang has mastered the technology required to fit a warhead on a missile.

On the home front, Kim Jong-il was, as expected, returned to his country’s most powerful body, the Supreme People’s Assembly, with a vote of 100 per cent in Sunday’s elections. Although that result was a foregone conclusion, analysts are eager to see whether one of his sons has also gained a seat. That would be the clearest sign yet that Mr Kim is grooming a successor, following intelligence reports he suffered a stroke last year.

All very troubling!

FREE MONEY in Adachi-ku, Tokyo – apply “between late March and early April”

Out of my deep civic pride and dedication to the cause of getting FREE MONEY NOW from the government, here is my translation of the announcement from Adachi-ku about the current status of preparations to hand out the free cash. Watch your mailboxes to receive application forms between late March and early April:

We are currently preparing to pay out the fixed-sum cash handouts, etc.

Updated: March 5, 2009
We plan to send applications to eligible payees by registered mail (kan’i kakitome) between late March and early April.

[Eligible recipients]
Persons who meet either of the following conditions as of the reference date (February 1, 2009)
(1) Persons listed in Adachi-ku’s official residence registry [tr: anyone registered as living in Adachi-ku in their juuminhyou]
(2) Persons listed in the official alien registry (gaikokujin touroku genbo) [tr: this means anyone with an alien registration card (gaikokujin tourokusho)] (persons on short-term visas are excluded)

[Payable amount]
12,000 yen per household member
(persons aged 65 or older or 18 or younger as of the reference date will receive 20,000 yen)

[Application procedures]
(1) Enter your account number on the application form and affix your official stamp (mitome-in) (you cannot use a stamp seal) [tr: Not sure, but you should be fine using the seal you used to open your bank account]
(2) Place the application form in the attached reply envelope and drop it in the mailbox.

* Due to the large number of eligible persons, we expect it will take 1-2 months for the funds to be deposited in each specified account. If you give a Japan Post Bank account, it will likely take even longer.

We will also pay a Child-rearing Support Special Allowance (for second children, third children, etc., born between April 2, 2002 and April 1, 2005) at the same time as the cash handouts.

Please watch out for fraud schemes posing as the official cash handout process.

If you receive a suspicious phone call regarding the cash payments, please contact your nearest police station (or call the police consultation line (9110)) or the Adachi-ku office assigned to cash handouts.

Use the attached sample for help filling out the application form (PDF).

Foreigners of Japan – Get your FREE MONEY!!!

With the passage of Prime Minister Aso’s landmark free money law, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has published a rough guideline on how to get your hands on that sweet, sweet cash. Each local government will apparently provide details on how to receive funds, but please note the following:

ANYONE with an alien registration card can receive the 12,000 yen.
It looks like all foreigners have to apply in person (UPDATE: or by mail, depending on how your town does it), even if their wife/husband is the head of household.

This is your right by law, so be sure to line up and check with your local municipality’s website to get it!

The following is a rough translation of the official announcement, for your reference.

Payment of Cash Handouts

You will either be notified by your local authorities with specific details on how to receive the funds. [tr: Feel free to contact them yourself if you don’t see anything in the mail!]

Notice

Local municipalities are currently in the process of determining the specific preparations for handing out the payments.

Overview

Purpose of policy

To help deal with the residents’ uncertainty in this economic downturn, this policy’s objective is to support the residents’ livelihoods and to contribute to regional economic measures by providing payments widely to the residents.

Persons eligible for payments / who must apply

Those who meet the following conditions as of the reference date (February 1, 2009) are eligible to receive payment:

1) Persons registered on the official residency registry network (Juki Net)
2) Persons registered on the official alien registry (gaikokujin touroku genbo) (only illegal aliens and foreigners on short-term visas are exempt)

The applicant and recipient shall be the head of the household to which the eligible persons belong (foreigners must each apply and receive funds separately).

Payment amount:

12,000 yen for each eligible person
(Persons 65 or older or 18 or younger as of the reference date will receive 20,000 yen each)