Politics – Page 28 – Mutantfrog Travelogue

Micro micro broadcasting

Buried in the second half of a Japan Times story about Japan’s dogged pursuit of resolution over the North Korean abduction issues was the following.

A Japanese citizens group is one step closer to getting approval to air Japanese-language programs intended for Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea.

The International Telecommunication Union, a Geneva-based body set up to standardize and regulate international radio and telecommunications, informed the government Monday that it is prepared to allocate a shortwave frequency band to the group, sources said.

Seriously? They want to actually broadcast programs specially prepared for a population which is at most 8 people, but which North Korea claims is actually zero? Personally, I have always suspected that North Korea was being entirely truthful when they said that the remaining abductees are all dead, but that they are probably trying to cover up the circumstances of their deaths, whether by suicide, execution, starvation, or whatever unpleasant means it was.

But even if North Korea was lying and the 8 are still alive, this is still an absolutely mind-stunningly dumb plan. First of all, there is the fact that short-wave radios are entirely banned in Korea-the only radios permitted for non governmental use can only be tuned to government preset stations, which presumably does not include “Japan Abductee News.” And think about the staggering inefficiency of this plan. How much effort exactly do they propose to spend on preparing radio broadcasts that have a virtually zero chance of getting to the intended audience, which let us remember is only eight people to begin with! I can sort of understand the enormous efforts to actually retrieve or at least discover the fates of kidnapped citizens, but why send out messages that a: probably no one will here and b: even if they did, no-one back in Japan would ever know that they had heard it.

C.P.U.S.A.

Just on the heels of my post the other day on the virtually ignored doings of Japan’s modern left-wing terrorist wannabees, an article in today’s New York Times informs us that the Communist Party USA still technically exists. In fact, the existence of this formerly very active organization is so marginal that their official website even seems to be down. And even worse for them, their Manhattan offices are being rented out to someone else. The good news, however (for the record, I consider the demise of the CPUSA merely “interesting” and neither good nor bad) is that in the process of cleaning out their offices, they are donating their entire 12,000 carton document archive to New York University. And for those readers who need a Japan connection, according to the article, one of the more curious documents found in the yet un-cataloged archive so far is “a letter from W. E. B Du Bois in 1939 denying he took money from Japan for propagandizing on its behalf.”

Who blew up what now?

I was just wondering why there are is so much news being created by the Japanese right wing, while the hard core left wingers never even seem to make the paper. Since the Red Army organization was eradicated in the late 80s, Japan has seen several incidents of terrorism and pseudo-terrorism (assassination, sarin gas incidents, death threats, arson, etc.) committed by right wing extremists and religious wackos that live in a universe entirely distinct from the political spectrum, but left wing activity seems to be mainly limited to retirees having picnics. Hence my surprise when I noticed this article, which is actually from a month ago, and yet I somehow failed to notice.

Japanese leftist group claims responsibility for blast near US base

A Japanese extreme left-wing group has claimed responsibility for a small explosion near a US army base outside Tokyo ahead of US Vice President Dick Cheney’s visit to Japan.

The group, calling itself the Revolutionary Army, said in a statement to media organisations here that the blast was an “angry blow of an iron hammer” at Washington’s plan to increase US troops in Iraq.

“It is an preemptive attack to stop Vice President Cheney’s visit to Japan,” the statement added, attacking moves to strengthen the US-Japan military alliance.

Cheney is scheduled to arrive here next Tuesday on a three-day visit during which he is expected to tour the US naval base in nearby Yokosuka.

The Metropolitan Police Department said Saturday they thought the group was a faction of a militant left-wing group called Kakurokyo (The Revolutionary Workers’ Council), known for a series of attacks using crude home-made incendiary devices in protest at the US military presence in Iraq.

[…]

This is the first I recall hearing about any left wing bombing attacks in Japan in recent years, but it is certainly more believable than the “Al-qaeda in Japan” theory that US officials suggested. Of course, the fact that kakurokyo took credit for the attack helps.
Below is an actual wanted poster for members of the Kakurokyo (革労協), from the Nagano police department.

As is typical with these extremist groups (left wing or right wing) there appears to be a confusing array of factions, counter factions, splinter groups and rival claimants to the same, but this wikipedia article on at least some of the people calling themselves kakuryokyo (specifically the “liberation faction”) actually does list some crimes over the past few years of which they are accused. According to the article, there were a total of 8 explosive related attacks, beginning in April of 2002, when they planted a timed explosive device in a train of the Keisei network. There have also been 7 crude missile attacks on US military bases in Japan, beginning with one in 2002, three in 2003, two in 2004, and then in 2007 the one mentioned in the Yahoo news article linked to above.

The early attack incidents are discussed in slightly more detail in this 2003 Ministry of Justice white paper, which for some reason creepily includes discussion of these criminals with attempts by peaceful anti-war groups to increase collaboration with peaceful left wing anti war groups in other countries, such as US based A.N.S.W.E.R. and the UK Stop the War Coalition.

The same MOJ document ends with a discussion of the “continuing threat” of the Japanese Red Army, which it says former supports of have formed the group “Movement Solidarity,” who are responsible for the formation of JAPAC, the Japan-Palestine Project Center. According to this report, “Movement Solidarity” had held a JAPAC conference at which former Red Army members said that they would “Maintain the meaning of the ‘Battle of Lod’ in the joint Palestinian struggle, carry on that sacrificial spirit, and continue with all their power to hammer out the direction of joint Palestinian activities relevant today, as strengthening the bonds of solidarity with the people.” The “Battle of Lod” refers to what is more commonly known as the 1972 Lod Airport Massacre, in which three Japanese Red Army members engaged in a suicide attack in support of the Palestinian cause. Some people believe that this attack was inspired by the Japanese kamikaze suicide squads of World War II, and that it in turn inspired Palestinian suicide bombing, that has now became a widespread feature in guerrilla insurgencies throughout the Middle East region and beyond.

The report also mentions that several Red Army are still wanted by the police (as of 2003, but I do not believe the situation has changed), and that one Bando Kunio had been reported as hiding out in Negros Island in the Philippines.

On a related note, Red Army member Yu Kakumura, who was arrested in 1986 carrying pipe bombs in his car while driving on the New Jersey turnpike is reportedly schedule to be released April 18 of this year. According to this decision of the Tenth Circuit US Court of Appeals on October 31, 2006 in response to a motion filed by Kakumura’s attorney:

He filed an application for a writ of habeas corpus pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 2241 challenging the method by which the Bureau of Prisons (BOP) calculates and awards good conduct time (GCT). Under the BOP’s method, Kikumura’s release date would be April 18, 2007. Employing the method Kikumura advocates, he would be released from prison on November 17, 2006, as he is a model prisoner and has received the maximum amount of GCT that he could earn.

The request for early release for “good conduct time” was denied, which implies that he will be released on this coming April 18.

Koizumi’s very well-funded think tank kicks off

Koizumi is the flagship advisor to a newly-established think tank. The XX, which will be chaired by economist Naoki Tanaka, who was close to the Koizumi administration. Here’s one of the initial reports from soon after Koizumi left office:

Sunday, October 8, 2006

Major Japan Firms To Set Up Think Tank, Invite Koizumi As Adviser

LONDON (Nikkei)–Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and other leading Japanese companies plan to establish a think tank possibly by the end of this year and invite former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to become one of its advisers, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun has learned.

The firms aim to use the research organization to heighten the ability of the private sector to make policy proposals to the government as well as make their opinions known overseas.

The new entity will be modeled on the Brookings Institution and other U.S. research and policy bodies that participate in policy formation in Washington. It will conduct in-depth studies on international matters ranging from natural resources, currency and energy to diplomacy, security and the environment.

Promoters of the plan, including Toyota, Canon Inc. (7751) and Nippon Steel Corp. (5401), whose top executives have headed the Japan Business Federation, Japan’s top business lobby, have already begun soliciting other large firms to help fund the project.

The think tank will be headed by Naoki Tanaka, a noted economic analyst, according to the plan, which the group hopes to make public possibly early next week.

During the Koizumi years, the LDP had tinkered with the idea of forming its own think tank to build intra-party policymaking capabilities vis-a-vis the bureaucracy, but it never ended up happening. A well-known private, conservative think tank that makes its presence felt could achieve the same purpose. There are lots of think tanks in Japan now, but many are either tied to universities, major corporations, and specific commentators and lack the same prestige, power, personnel, and policy clout of the US model.

Except it seems like the only major outlet reporting on last night’s kickoff ceremony is the sensationalist Gendai:

Former PM Koizumi Raises 2 billion yen

Since leaving office, Koizumi has stayed out of the public eye, save for Diet appearances. Last night (Mar 12) he showed up at the kickoff ceremony for a private think tank, an event that was attended by business and industry heavies. What was most surprising was his ability to raise cash. The 4 founding companies have invested 100 million yen, and the 80 member companies have contributed 20 million yen apiece for a total of 2 billion yen. Naoki Tanaka, a commentator cose to the ex-PM, will serve as chairman. The chairman’s salary is 50 million yen annually, and Koizumi himself, who will serve as an advisor, will reportedly receive substantial advisor’s fees. Despite this, the think tank is designated as a “voluntary organization” and not a foundation or political organization. What’s going on here?

Americans might be somewhat used to the idea of former political leaders finding second careers as lobbyists after they leave office, but the Japanese press can always score some cheap points by accusing someone of making too much money.

But as much as I want to defend Koizumi, I have to wonder why this venture is launching with so little fanfare or detail. It doesn’t even seem to have a website yet. Is it truly going for a Brookings-style approach, or will this end up as Koizumi’s shadow war room to try and influence the government from behind the scenes (like former PM Nakasone’s organization)? I don’t think I’m alone in echoing Gendai’s sentiments — どうなってんのか？

Gendai is up front about its sensationalism

The latest Nikkan Gendai daily e-mail magazine tries to get to the bottom of the recent scandal involving MAFF Minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka’s creative accounting (his funds management body “booked costs totaled 44.76 million over 11 years through 2005” that were supposedly incurred in an official Diet office that members use for free):

[Matsuoka’s] appointment as Minsiter was Bush’s will?!

It’s hard to imagine why the now-desperate Agriculture Minister “Something something regenerated water” Matsuoka was ever appointed to the Cabinet, but getting to the bottom of things, it looks like it was all “the gift of foreign pressure” from the US. Reportedly, the MAFF ministerial post was Matsuoka’s “merit badge” for playing the consensus-building role to re-re-open US beef imports to Japan in July 2006. President Bush, who hails from Texas, a state with a large ranching industry, exerted his will, and ex-PM Koizumi backed him up… or so the story goes. Doesn’t it just seem like that’s what must have taken place? (いかにもありそうな話ではないか。)

Once again I have to appreciate Gendai’s nerve, much in the same way I have to respect Weekly World News for continuing to put Batboy on the cover every week.

No cabinet reshuffle…for now

Japanese PM Abe chose to use the newspaper holiday to respond directly to recent speculation that a cabinet reshuffle is in the works.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Abe: No Cabinet Reshuffle Before Upper House Election

TOKYO (Kyodo)–Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday that he has no intention of reshuffling his Cabinet before the House of Councillors election to be held this summer.

”I am not at all thinking about reshuffling my Cabinet, and the election will be held under the current Cabinet,” Abe said in an NHK program.

Speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle is rising as the premier’s popularity tumbles in part due to a series of gaffes by his Cabinet ministers.

The upper house election, seen as a make-or-break test for Abe, is set for July. This is preceded by unified local elections in April.

Earlier this month, Yuya Niwa, chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s General Council, indicated that Abe may reshuffle his Cabinet in late April.

This makes sense. Abe can ignore public opinion polls to a certain extent, but elections reshape the political landscape and have a direct effect on his ability to govern. They also serve as an indirect referendum on how the top leadership is doing. The “late April” theory is based on how Abe would react to a poor showing in the unified local elections that are to be held in April. Without getting into a numbers game, there’s no guarantee that the LDP will do well in the local elections, but their chances are much better than they are of the party keeping its seats in the upper house election scheduled for July. By ruling out personnel changes at this stage, there will be fewer opportunities for people to call for Abe’s head moving into the upper house elections, which allows the PM to push forward with the constitutional amendment process. Even if Abe otherwise loses mometum, he is eager to push for progress toward revising the constitution while he remains in office.

So what happens after July? Neither major party (LDP or DPJ) is enjoying a very positive image right now. The LDP has been embroiled in scandal, but many similar scandals are bouncing right back in the DPJ’s lap, earning them the title of “boomerang party.” And on top of that, recent regional political developments, including the election of unaffiliated Miyazaki Governor Sonomanma Higashi and the rejection of major party official backing by both of the main candidates in the upcoming race for the Tokyo governor’s office, are giving rise to speculation of voter dissolutionment. These developments make any predictions difficult, but suffice to say that if Abe’s LDP fares as poorly as they are fearing then a cabinet reshuffle would be a kind prediction of Abe’s fate.

Right now the LDP only maintains its majority in the upper house through its alliance with the New Komeito, and if the LDP loses still more seats it would have to rely on them even more. So on top of the familiar political problems, such a situation might inspire the Komeito to want more direct say in policymaking, or in other words more cabinet representation, especially since they’ve been against some of Abe’s least popular actions, including the readmittance of anti-postal privatization Diet members to the LDP. If I were them, I wouldn’t hestitate to say I told you so, and if the LDP does badly enough the Komeito might have to start considering whether to start eyeballing the DPJ (since the Komeito is essentially interested in teaming up with whoever is in power to maintain political cover for Soka Gakkai).

Some foreign observers are optimistic about the Abe administration and dismiss the questions of Abe’s leadership as “shallow”:

The fourth credibility problem is reform policy. PM Abe’s formation of many competing study groups is a huge step forward. These groups institutionalize the progress made in the Koizumi years. However, investors have yet to see much concrete economic legislation as a result. In addition, PM Abe’s slippage in public opinion polls raises questions about the outcome of the July Upper House election. Once again, I am optimistic. Much of the criticism of PM Abe is, in my view, shallow, and the election is likely to come out well. However, investors need evidence.

It’s true that Abe needs to put something out there in terms of reform without letting the public fixate on scandal after scandal. And who knows, maybe he’s got some last-minute cards up his sleeve, though he’d have to get creative since there aren’t any really sexy economic reforms on the horizon. But while legislation might quell investors’ fears, the public continues to cry for blood. And fact is, the “shallow” bickering over who said what offensive thing hints at deeper discords in the Ade administration, which the Shisaku blog has down cold:

Abe needs a ugly, old, leather-skinned Chief Cabinet Secretary—an ancient reptile of a pol who could grab Abe by the collar, drag him in the Prime Minister’s office, throw him into the big chair there, press down on Abe’s left shoulder with his right hand, get right in the PM’s face and tell him, “Your mouth is making my life difficult. Now you’re going to go out there and say the following to the press. Not one word less. Not one word more. OK? And then when you’re done, you will come right back here—because you and I are going to call in a few of your ministers for a little talk. Now get out there.”

Shiozaki Yasuhisa is not that person. He is a smart, careful, well-spoken, good-looking conservative with a sense of Japan’s place in the world. However, he does not scare Abe in the least—and that’s what Abe needs, to be a little less blasé about his and his government’s conduct.

I assume Shisaku’s referring to Abe’s statements that have led to a flare-up of protests over his approach to the comfort women issue, because he’s been talking about them recently with the same wit*:

Stupid man. Stupid, incurious, arrogant, dogmatic man who deserves to lose in July.

Why has his prime ministership replicated intellectual trajectory of the Bush presidency, only at 12 times the speed?

But the Japan Times reminds us that the coverage of these issues for the TV-watching domestic audience is rather subdued, and these foreign policy issues will likely barely register in the public’s mind come July. Still, I think the criticism of Abe’s political insensitivity is valid in a host of other areas (comments on White-collar overtime exemption – somehow good for fighting a low birth rate? – and readmitting a political ally to the LDP who Koizumi kicked out for opposing postal privatization because “he agrees with me”?). The leathery father figure just isn’t there for him.

So now that Abe’s dug in his heels and refused to budge on a possible cabinet reshuffle, we can look forward to 4 more months of 5 million yen utility bills, birth-giving machines, hamstrung economic reform, and blank stares from zombie Abe. But hey, if he can push through the public referendum bill it might have all been worth it to him to mess up everything else and lose the upper house. As an admitted voyeur of the whole process, I have to admit it would be more fun to watch him freefall than to make a comback.

*I’m assuming Shisaku is a he. I have no clue who writes that blog.

More kabuki in the House

This time, it’s being reported in this piece of syndicated commentary by William Lind.

You can almost hear [the House Democrats’] glee as they offer the anti-war voters who gave them their majority one of Washington`s oldest dodges, ‘requirements’ the Executive Branch can waive if it wants to.

The kabuki script currently goes like this. Congressional Democrats huff and puff about ending the war; the White House and Congressional Republicans accuse them of ‘not supporting the troops;’ and the Democrats pretend to be stopped cold, plaintively crying that ‘Well, we all agree we have to support the troops, don’t we?’

‘Supporting the troops’ is just another dodge. The only way to support the troops when a war is lost is to end the war and bring them home.

I guess “theater” doesn’t sound exotic enough to suit a Beltway hack.

Have you been missing my running commentary on Abe? Just read the Economist instead

The Economist this week reports on my favorite topic: the “gossip-mill” among Japanese political circles. This week the mill is speculating on the prospects of Abe staying in office beyond the upper house elections. Of all the recent English-language weekly articles on Abe’s trouble, this one sticks the closest to how the political debate looks from the Japanese perspective. In other words, they’re trying to beat me at my own game, and I like it:

THE gossip-mill is grinding away, and the man whose career could soon pop out the other end in fragments is none other than Shinzo Abe.
…
[Abe’s] decline [in public support] may explain why on March 1st Mr Abe chose to undo much of what he had achieved through his October visits to Beijing and Seoul, by publicly denying one of the many Chinese and Korean grievances: that Japan’s Imperial Army forced hundreds of thousands of women, mostly Chinese and Korean, into prostitution during the 1930s and 1940s.
…
The Japanese public has turned against Mr Abe not because of foreign policy or historical debates but for economic reasons. For all the government’s boasts that Japan is enjoying its longest period of growth since 1945, the Japanese are not feeling much benefit in their purses and wallets.
…
In this respect, things were no better under Mr Koizumi, but at least he seemed to be doing something about it by shaking things up. By comparison, Mr Abe looks clueless.

I’ll reproduce the closing section in full because it is so, so tasty:

Dreaming of Lionheart

Actually, his problem is subtler than mere cluelessness. He is torn between dealing with the politically potent topic of inequality—in an ageing Japan, the income gap is widening—and making further reforms to encourage future growth. The only thing he has done so far has made both problems worse, however: his government clamped down on the interest rates chargeable by consumer-finance companies on loans to Japan’s poorest borrowers. This looked popular, but some say it has choked off their borrowing and helped to depress consumer spending.

Worse still, when he has had a political clue it has led him in the wrong direction. Mr Koizumi pulled off the remarkable trick of attacking his own political party, eventually kicking out LDP Diet members when they rebelled against his flagship programme of postal privatisation. That laid the ground for his triumph in the 2005 general election. Mr Abe, keen to curry favour with his party’s old guard, has now readmitted 11 of the rebels. At a stroke, that has changed his public odour from breath of fresh air to the usual LDP halitosis.

Whether he will actually be dumped, however, depends on how badly the LDP fares in the July Upper House elections. Fortunately for Mr Abe, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan is also in disarray, with its leader, Ichiro Ozawa, in poor health and at war with his own colleagues. Yet that may not save Mr Abe, such is the mood against him. Strange stories have been circulating about how cabinet ministers have so little respect for him that they do not bother to stand up when he enters the room. The rival most often mentioned as his budding successor is Taro Aso, the bumptious foreign minister, who is also a conservative and currently cuts a more dashing figure than his boss.

Another name, though, is increasingly being whispered: Junichiro Koizumi. There is no real prospect of tempting him back, at least not yet, for the great man is said to be having far too much fun as Japan’s most eligible bachelor. But how he is missed.

For all its great attempts to read the tea leaves, the article completely neglects to mention the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle, which seems to be the dominant theory these days (probably from LDP sources who want a crack at a ministerial post). Given that the internal conflicts in the Abe administration go far beyond a failure to rise when Abe enters the room, a 2nd cabinet may seem in order. Abe has expressed intentions to stay in office for a long time, but so far he and his people have lacked the savvy to keep his achievements in focus and maintain the public support so crucial for staying in office.

Recently, Abe reached out to Koizumi, who according to reports met Abe and LDP Sec Gen Hidenao Nakagawa for dinner last night and encouraged Abe to stay on as PM even if his party loses the upper house elections. Abe listened to Koizumi lecture on strategy the whole time, including lines like “It’s been written that a ‘draft’ is blowing between the kantei and the LDP, but when I was in office is was a thunderstorm. Just pit the kantei and the party against each other and stir up a typhoon” (according to Nakagawa at least). In such a dire environment, it’s only natural for Abe to get advice from someone who was relatively good at “[seeming] to be doing something…by shaking things up,” even if some people would point out that the LDP was actually losing seats to the DPJ in every election under Koizumi except for the 2001 upper house elections that were aided by “Koizumi fever” and the landslide victory in the 2005 lower house election that Koizumi successfully turned into a referendum on postal privatization.

But at least Koizumi started out with low expectations and managed to stay in power, as opposed to Abe’s quick decline and non-stop crisis mode. At any rate, whether Abe can pull off Koizumi’s tactics without actually being Koizumi (or having Koizumi team members on board) is beyond me, but then I’m not the one playing this game.

Nobody messes with Japanese truckers and gets away with it

Some of you might have seen what happens when you throw bicycles at Japanese garbage men. Well, one ballsy dump truck driver has shown the world that garbage men aren’t the only ones who won’t take things lying down:

Furious over moves to tighten controls on load limits and to ban diesel-powered vehicles in some areas, transport company owner Masatake Harazumi on Wednesday let the government know how he felt. The 60-year-old trucker drove his rig to the Diet building in Tokyo and dumped about 10 tons of soil in front of the gate. (Toshiyuki Matsumoto/ The Asahi Shimbun)

(2nd photo from Nippon TV)

Abe’s turn to get SLAMMED

I wanted to go back to ignoring the recent flap over a House resolution to condemn Japan’s supposed failure to adequately deal with the “comfort women” issue. But how can I sit quietly when the Prime Minister himself is getting SLAMMED?

Growing Chorus Slams War-Brothel Remarks Japanese P.M. Under Fire For Comfort Women Remarks
AP

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – March 3, 2007 – South Korea again criticized Japan’s prime minister Saturday for disavowing his country’s responsibility for using Asian women as sex slaves for Japanese troops in World War II.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Thursday there was no proof that so-called “comfort women” were forced into sexual slavery during the war.

The remark triggered outrage throughout Asia.

Abe’s statement is “aimed at glossing over the historical truth and our government expresses strong regret,” said a statement from South Korea’s Foreign Ministry.