Allow Japanese nukes?

Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer has a silly and misinformed column arguing that the US needs to allow Japan to arm themselves with nuclear weapons to protect against North Korea. Right. The nuclear weapons program that Japan has been longing for all these years and has only refrained from starting because of US pressure.

Japan is a true anomaly. All the other Great Powers went nuclear decades ago — even the once-and-no-longer great, such as France; the wannabe great, such as India; and the never-will-be great, such as North Korea. There are nukes in the hands of Pakistan, which overnight could turn into an al-Qaeda state, and North Korea

I’m frankly surprised at how bad his reasoning is in this column, how much it sounds like the writing of an enthusiastic but narrowly informed freshman in Poly-sci class.

The fact of the matter is that Japan does not have nuclear weapons because the Japanese population is almost unanimously opposed to the idea. Yes, a couple of higherups in the LDP have suggested the idea of maybe talking about considering discussion of the issue, but quite frankly I cannot think of a better way for them to finally start losing elections seriously than to make the acquisition of nuclear weapons part of their official party policy.

His last paragraph is particularly absurd.

Why are we so intent on denying this stable, reliable, democratic ally the means to help us shoulder the burden in a world where so many other allies — the inveterately appeasing South Koreans most notoriously — insist on the free ride?

This is a mind boggling reversal of reality. Yes, South Korea has been friendly to North Korea. (Unlike some people they actually have to live next door to the crazy man with the gun, which suggests a different perspective from the other side of the Pacific.) But they also have a draft for all adult males, which can hardly be a free ride. Not to mention that fact that South Korea actually DID have a program to develop nukes a couple of decades back, which the US forced them to abandon.

On the other hand, Japan actually DID have a long-term policy of insisting on a free ride. Following the end of the US occupation, the US actually tried to persuade the Japanese government to abandon the principle of pacificism that the US had forced on them only a few years before, and rebuild their military so that they could participate in the Korean war. Japan refused to have even a token military for many years, using the pacifist constitution as an excuse to keep from spending any national resources, capital or human, on military or weapons-a policy that was partly responsible for the country’s fantastic industrial development.

Cold economics were of course not the only reason for Japan to keep from investing in a military for so long. After the disastrous defeat of World War II, culminating in the only use of a nuclear weapon so far, were was also a widespread belief that war was a failed strategy for national success, and that lesson has over the decades transformed into a very strong and nearly universal value of national pacifism.

I see political campaign posters every day calling for the protection of the pacifism clause of the constitution (Article 9), and anti-war and especially anti-nuclear messages are more common and mainstream here than in any other country of which I am aware. In fact, I have never even seen a public protest or demonstration in Japan that did not include that message in some capacity.

I think this comment left by some Japanese person on the Washington Post site says it well.

Get a grip Charlie. While there is an active right wing here of course, the majority in this country where I live is so opposed to nuclear weapons that it would defy your comprehension. Many people here would simply choose non-existence total elimination of both the nation and state of Japan over nuclear weapons possession, let alone use. The Japanese government would run out of fire hoses to put down the demonstrations. Calls for a nuclear Japan are still very premature, and indicate a lack of familiarity with the culture. It aint gonna happen anytime soon.

I think the bit about choosing “non-existence total elimination of both the nation and state of Japan” is frankly over the top, and if Japan were faced for some reason with a genuine war they would came around to full acceptance of their military, but not as things stand now.

Japan’s best offense is their lack of capability for offense. Yes, North Korea distrusts Japan more than anyone, but even they know that Japan is bound by their constitution, laws, and tradition not to use their military for combat purposes unless they are attacked first. North Korea does have to worry about the very real (if unlikely) threat of military action on the part of the US, South Korea or even China, but as long as they do not attack Japan first, Japan is no threat to them-and that more than anything else is what keeps Japan safe today.

[Addendum]: I should have mentioned that the policy of specifically relying on US military protection and instead developing the industrial economy is not a theory of mine, but the Yoshida Doctrine, named after the postwar Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida , who was incidentally Aso’s grandfather.

Bridge on the River Kwai [Photo]


August 19, 2006

Immortalized in the 1957 film of the same name, this bridge was constructed during the Second World War by British and American POWs of the Japanese as part of the so called “railway of death,” intended to create a link with Burma. After Japan was forced to give up all of their overseas colonies and property following their defeat, the British sold the entire Burmese-Thailand railway, including this bridge, to the Thai government for 50 million baht. The bridge, which had been damaged by aerial bombing, was repaired and remains in use as a tourist attraction.

Quick note on the NK Nuke Test

Go read about the test elsewhere (“Fundamentally changes the landscape” is a good one as well as Washington Post’s just-the-facts coverage), but I just have one thing to say that I’m sure the news reports won’t focus on:

  • NK’s July 4 missile tests: rained on America’s Independence Day
  • Monday’s nuclear test: Screws up Columbus Day in the US and Sports Day in Japan.
  • Both were long weekends, both incidents required top US leaders to wake up in the middle of the night.

    Exploding an in-your-face nuclear bomb just isn’t enough for Kim Jong Il, he’s so evil he won’t even wait till the US has had its morning coffee! Well, I’m sure the government pays overtime for whatever non-exempt employees have to respond.

    Update: One country’s interrupted holiday is another’s celebrated holidays:

    UPDATE 7: Why today, you might ask? Well, Korean-language Money Today suggests that because today—Oct. 9—falls between two holidays in Korea: the anniversary of Kim Jong-il assuming the position of Korean Workers Party general secretary ( Oct. 8 ) and the anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers Party ( Oct. 10 ).

    Understatement of the day

    From the NYT:

    […]the National Security Council released a statement saying that [a nuclear test] would “severely undermine our confidence in North Korea’s commitment to denuclearization.”

    If my friend Ted had a steak dinner it would undermine my confidence in his commitment to vegetarianism.

    If the local parish priest attended an orgy, it would undermind my confidence in his vow of celibacy.

    The value of apology

    Letter to the Mainichi Shimbun:

    The “three principles of love” proposed by an organization called the “National Husbands’ Advisory Association”—if you don’t want your marriage to end in divorce, you should say “I’m sorry,” “Thank you” and “I love you” without fear, hesitation or embarrassment.

    If North Korea doesn’t want to be estranged from the international community, it should at least try following principle number one.

    Hey, if apologies let you get around immigration law, maybe they’ll let you get around international law, too!

    I know you’re busy, Mr. Abe, but…

    Update your website!!!!

    abe_top.jpg

    (As of the evening of Oct 2, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s website still indicated that he was still Chief Cabinet Secretary and was still trying to use some sort of DOS prompt to “./configure –with-passion=/home/abe/blood”. Blood?)

    Hopefully his people are just too busy gearing up to make Abe the first world leader to offer a regular podcast… or a mixi profile?

    LIVE BLOGGING of the Abe questioning

    Japan’s new PM Shinzo Abe is in the Diet today answering questions fomr Diet members on his policies. You can watch the proceedings now here (in Japanese). Abe just said to the effect:

    There was a question on the enshrinement of Class A War Criminals at Yasukuni Shrine. On the topic of Class A War Criminals, there are many opinions on each side so I don’t think it would be appropriate for the Japanese government to comment one way or the other on the matter.

    Pardon my ignorance, but doesn’t the Japanese government generally respect the results of the Tokyo tribunals? I’m interested to see what the press has to say (if anything) on Abe’s comment. More likely, they will comment on what he said next, which is that he still refuses to comment on whether he himself plans to visit the shrine.

    UPDATE: The video of the questioning is now available.

    Here’s what he said:

    There was a question on the responsibility as national leaders of the so-called “Class-A war criminals.” Regarding the responsibility for the last great war, there is a variety of opinions, so I feel that it may be inappropriate to make detailed, sweeping comments as a government [on this issue]. Whatever the case, our nation accepted the judgments of the Tokyo tribunals based on Article 11 of the San Francisco Peace Treaty, so I believe that in state to state relationships, the Government of Japan is in no position to raise any objections regarding this judgment.

    His explanation is almost an exactly lifted from the foreign ministry’s explanation of the issue:

    The Government of Japan acknowledges that there are various arguments regarding this judgment. However, Japan has accepted the judgment of the IMTFE under Article 11 of the San Francisco Peace Treaty. Therefore, in state to state relationship, the Government of Japan believes that it is in no position to raise any objections regarding this judgment.

    Isn’t that cheating? I thought this was a man with strong opinions!

    One other interesting development during the questioning: Abe screwed up, if only a little bit. DPJ member Takaaki Matsumoto asked the PM whether Abe’s reference in his Friday inaugural policy speech to “research” what situations would allow for collective defense by Japan meant that the “quite detailed” constitutional interpretations by previous governments would be changed. In response, Abe repeated what he said last week: He will research into what kinds of circumstances would allow Japan to exercise collective defense, founded on previous constitutional interpretations and Diet debates, and “focusing on actual situations that could occur.” According to Abe, there is a need to look into this issue due to “increased expectations” of Japan so that the U.S. Japan alliance can “operate more efficiently.”

    However, minutes later, Abe came back and “supplemented” his response by saying that at this stage he was simply stating a “summary of his views” on the matter and that he intends to “duly consider” the matter of collective defense. This essentially backtracks his earlier, more concrete statement that he would research the issue.

    Matsumoto, an opposition lawmaker who has never held a cabinet post, then found himself in the unlikely position lecturing the youngest (and one of the least experienced) postwar prime minister on how to run his cabinet: “I think that there might be a need for you to reread your statements on the…collective defense issue at the cabinet and get them organized.”

    Not sure why Abe tried to delete his previous remarks, but perhaps he is trying to avoid making headlines about his efforts to rewrite the constitution ahead of his Oct. 8 summit meeting with the Chinese premier.

    Meet Boozy Bird, Diamond Geezer, and Football Crazy

    As Mrs. Adamu and I wandered through the Tokyu department store, which is attached to the massive, disorganized and foreign-tourist-packed shopping mall known as MBK Center, we came across these creepy, grotesque dolls that in some designer’s twisted fantasy are intended to be cute:
    Black Dolls 100106.JPG

    Looks like one statue maker needs a little diversity training. But wait! The same company (the name of which remains unknown due to the lack of any labels on the items save the obvious) deftly escapes any charges of racial insensitivity by offering similar nightmare images of white people:
    White Dolls 100106.JPG

    Such bad taste is extremely typical here in Thailand. The most egregious example of this is the large number of “bad taste” T-shirt shops that are common throughout Bangkok but are especially noticeable at outdoor markets. The sight of countless shirts that make absolutely zero attempt at actual humor in favor of a blatantly shocking/offensive message is an almost daily cringe inducer here. You can see a representative sample of these embodiments of betrayal of God’s gift of language and creativity upon mankind here (only click if you promise never to buy a shirt). Who buys the stuff? I have not seen anyone around Bangkok wearing a “Just did it” t-shirt, thank God, but my guess is they appeal to some of the more boorish Eurotrash tourists (Americans are a rare breed here among tourists) and their kids.

    One positive result of the proliferation of annoying and unfunny T-shirts is that once in a while you’ll stumble upon some real humor, such as when a mild-mannered 40 year old Thai woman has no idea she’s wearing a shirt telling everyone around her to “FUCK OFF” or a younger man who probably has no idea of what “super funk” means or is despite wearing those powerful words emblazoned on a tattered jacket.

    Getting back to the icky dolls, a Google search of the seemingly nonsense names turns up an actual diamond seller, a show the Nokia corporation sponsors on ESPN that I believe airs on the company’s station in Thailand, and some sort of differently hideous drunk baby doll that’s apparently got some following in the UK, that actually does resemble the first doll. Leads me to wonder: Are these things all references to/sad imitations of Commonwealth-region pop culture?

    Driving in Thailand: Some words to the wise

    Ari Station Sept 2006.JPG
    (A rare lull in traffic outside the Ari skytrain station. Photo (c) Adamu)

    It is dangerous to drive in Thailand, I have recently learned:

    Cars wear down quickly in Thailand because most roads are paved in concrete, not asphalt, because the usual size of parking stall there is smaller creating more bumps and dents, and because it is hot and humid year-round. Other factors contributing to wear and tear include fraud at the service station, including repairmen replacing new parts with used ones and bringing in cars for the same repairs over and over again.

    Many expats living in Thailand hire drivers, but the drivers can be unreliable. Often they will show up late or not at all. And when they do show up, they may drive drunk or on drugs. If you decide to fire an irresponsible driver, watch out: he may try and get revenge.

    The traffic conditions in Thailand are infamously dangerous. In fact, statistically every car on the road will experience an accident each year (as opposed to about 1/4 of cars in Japan). Insurance coverage, on the other hand, is often extremely low, with personal injury coverage often less than 1 million baht (about US$27,000).

    In the pretty likely scenario that you are in an auto accident, be aware that many public hospitals do not have ambulances of their own. And you may have to wait for the ambulance for a while, since you can’t go to the hospital until an insurance inspector arrives on the scene. Further, emergency personnel may not do much until they know you can pay for their services.

    Still, Thailand’s roads aren’t nearly as dangerous as, say, Pakistan‘s. (More info on driving in Thailand can be found here)