China has edged above Germany to become the world’s third largest economy, based on newly revised GDP data:
China’s economy leapfrogs Germany
The Chinese government has increased its estimate of how much the economy grew during 2007.
The revision means China’s economy overtook Germany’s to become the world’s third largest in 2007.
Gross domestic product expanded 13%, up from an earlier estimate of 11.9%, to 25.7 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion).
The BBC tries to play this down (“Many Chinese people have not benefited from the boom”), but let’s use some simple algebra with vaguely realistic numbers pulled out of thin air to take a look at some rough growth scenarios:
China vs. Japan
- Scenario 1: Given zero growth in Japan’s economy vs. 8% annually for China, China will overtake Japan in 2011.
- Scenario 2: 2% growth in Japan vs. 6% for China = China overtakes Japan in 2014.
- Scenario 3: 2% growth in Japan vs. 4% for China = China overtakes Japan in 2021.
China vs. US
- Scenario 1: Given 2% growth in the US economy vs. 8% annually for China, China will overtake the US in 2034.
- Scenario 2: 3% growth in the US vs. 6% for China = China is top economy in 2057
- Scenario 3: 2% growth in the US vs. 4% for China = China rules us all in 2080.
So barring some major calamity or re-Maoization, China will overtake Japan as the #2 economy in a few years. The US seems a little safer but numbers like this make you sit up and pay attention to the Business section!