No cabinet reshuffle…for now

Japanese PM Abe chose to use the newspaper holiday to respond directly to recent speculation that a cabinet reshuffle is in the works.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Abe: No Cabinet Reshuffle Before Upper House Election

TOKYO (Kyodo)–Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday that he has no intention of reshuffling his Cabinet before the House of Councillors election to be held this summer.

”I am not at all thinking about reshuffling my Cabinet, and the election will be held under the current Cabinet,” Abe said in an NHK program.

Speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle is rising as the premier’s popularity tumbles in part due to a series of gaffes by his Cabinet ministers.

The upper house election, seen as a make-or-break test for Abe, is set for July. This is preceded by unified local elections in April.

Earlier this month, Yuya Niwa, chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s General Council, indicated that Abe may reshuffle his Cabinet in late April.

This makes sense. Abe can ignore public opinion polls to a certain extent, but elections reshape the political landscape and have a direct effect on his ability to govern. They also serve as an indirect referendum on how the top leadership is doing. The “late April” theory is based on how Abe would react to a poor showing in the unified local elections that are to be held in April. Without getting into a numbers game, there’s no guarantee that the LDP will do well in the local elections, but their chances are much better than they are of the party keeping its seats in the upper house election scheduled for July. By ruling out personnel changes at this stage, there will be fewer opportunities for people to call for Abe’s head moving into the upper house elections, which allows the PM to push forward with the constitutional amendment process. Even if Abe otherwise loses mometum, he is eager to push for progress toward revising the constitution while he remains in office.

So what happens after July? Neither major party (LDP or DPJ) is enjoying a very positive image right now. The LDP has been embroiled in scandal, but many similar scandals are bouncing right back in the DPJ’s lap, earning them the title of “boomerang party.” And on top of that, recent regional political developments, including the election of unaffiliated Miyazaki Governor Sonomanma Higashi and the rejection of major party official backing by both of the main candidates in the upcoming race for the Tokyo governor’s office, are giving rise to speculation of voter dissolutionment. These developments make any predictions difficult, but suffice to say that if Abe’s LDP fares as poorly as they are fearing then a cabinet reshuffle would be a kind prediction of Abe’s fate.

Right now the LDP only maintains its majority in the upper house through its alliance with the New Komeito, and if the LDP loses still more seats it would have to rely on them even more. So on top of the familiar political problems, such a situation might inspire the Komeito to want more direct say in policymaking, or in other words more cabinet representation, especially since they’ve been against some of Abe’s least popular actions, including the readmittance of anti-postal privatization Diet members to the LDP. If I were them, I wouldn’t hestitate to say I told you so, and if the LDP does badly enough the Komeito might have to start considering whether to start eyeballing the DPJ (since the Komeito is essentially interested in teaming up with whoever is in power to maintain political cover for Soka Gakkai).

Some foreign observers are optimistic about the Abe administration and dismiss the questions of Abe’s leadership as “shallow”:

The fourth credibility problem is reform policy. PM Abe’s formation of many competing study groups is a huge step forward. These groups institutionalize the progress made in the Koizumi years. However, investors have yet to see much concrete economic legislation as a result. In addition, PM Abe’s slippage in public opinion polls raises questions about the outcome of the July Upper House election. Once again, I am optimistic. Much of the criticism of PM Abe is, in my view, shallow, and the election is likely to come out well. However, investors need evidence.

It’s true that Abe needs to put something out there in terms of reform without letting the public fixate on scandal after scandal. And who knows, maybe he’s got some last-minute cards up his sleeve, though he’d have to get creative since there aren’t any really sexy economic reforms on the horizon. But while legislation might quell investors’ fears, the public continues to cry for blood. And fact is, the “shallow” bickering over who said what offensive thing hints at deeper discords in the Ade administration, which the Shisaku blog has down cold:

Abe needs a ugly, old, leather-skinned Chief Cabinet Secretary—an ancient reptile of a pol who could grab Abe by the collar, drag him in the Prime Minister’s office, throw him into the big chair there, press down on Abe’s left shoulder with his right hand, get right in the PM’s face and tell him, “Your mouth is making my life difficult. Now you’re going to go out there and say the following to the press. Not one word less. Not one word more. OK? And then when you’re done, you will come right back here—because you and I are going to call in a few of your ministers for a little talk. Now get out there.”

Shiozaki Yasuhisa is not that person. He is a smart, careful, well-spoken, good-looking conservative with a sense of Japan’s place in the world. However, he does not scare Abe in the least—and that’s what Abe needs, to be a little less blasé about his and his government’s conduct.

I assume Shisaku’s referring to Abe’s statements that have led to a flare-up of protests over his approach to the comfort women issue, because he’s been talking about them recently with the same wit*:

Stupid man. Stupid, incurious, arrogant, dogmatic man who deserves to lose in July.

Why has his prime ministership replicated intellectual trajectory of the Bush presidency, only at 12 times the speed?

But the Japan Times reminds us that the coverage of these issues for the TV-watching domestic audience is rather subdued, and these foreign policy issues will likely barely register in the public’s mind come July. Still, I think the criticism of Abe’s political insensitivity is valid in a host of other areas (comments on White-collar overtime exemption – somehow good for fighting a low birth rate? – and readmitting a political ally to the LDP who Koizumi kicked out for opposing postal privatization because “he agrees with me”?). The leathery father figure just isn’t there for him.

So now that Abe’s dug in his heels and refused to budge on a possible cabinet reshuffle, we can look forward to 4 more months of 5 million yen utility bills, birth-giving machines, hamstrung economic reform, and blank stares from zombie Abe. But hey, if he can push through the public referendum bill it might have all been worth it to him to mess up everything else and lose the upper house. As an admitted voyeur of the whole process, I have to admit it would be more fun to watch him freefall than to make a comback.

*I’m assuming Shisaku is a he. I have no clue who writes that blog.