At least not yet.

Sure, but I don’t think he meant the “billion” literally. I read it as “you may think that Japanese people are overreacting with masks right now, but considering that normal flu kills people, this scarier strand of flu certainly justifies the reaction it’s getting.” If that’s the case, then it would also justify a media panic every year. Of course, maybe I’m just putting words in Adrian’s mouth, in which case I apologize.

“apan has more than 10 times the population density of the US, but only 1/3 of the seasonal deaths”

Considering also that the population here is more top-heavy, yes that is very interesting. But surely better medical care overall has a lot to do with it too.

That is less than 8 masks per person, average. Hardly an unreasonable number, actually.

What is more interesting to me is the first part of that quote: Japan has more than 10 times the population density of the US, but only 1/3 of the seasonal deaths (I think population density has more of an impact on rate of transmission/number of cases than actual raw population numbers, or in any case would certainly cancel out the fact the US is starting from twice the population). They must be doing something right, so when I see WHO or CDC advice that “the efficacy of masks is not proven”, I tend to think “perhaps technically so, but what about the huge difference in mortality rates between the US and Japan?”

Er, if I follow your logic correctly, aren’t you suggesting that Japanese people should purchase a billion masks every flu season?

Wow, that’s scary. That actually increases the risk of transmission, right?

If you watch people talking at the right angle in the right light you can actually see their personal splutter cloud. This splutter is an actual visible cloud that can be seen clearly for about 50cm from the speakers mouth. Wearing a mask does not eliminate this splutter but it does catch a certain amount of it and clearly reduces it’s visible impact.
Ah, silence truly is golden.

One of the main reasons for the CDC and the WHO being conservative in their approach and attitude to wearing masks probabaly has more to do with there just not being enough to meet this sudden world demand. Imagine what would happen if just these to agencies suddenly started recommending that everyone wear an anti viral mask and for them to be effective they should be changed 3-4 times a day at least to be effective. I seriously doubt that anyone from the CDC or WHO would ride a packed Japanese train without wearing a mask and more likely they’d freak everyone out buy having on their full body space suit like condoms with air tanks.

In any case it looks like at this point wearing a mask is only delaying the inevitable because sooner or later the big bad boogey man swine flu is gonna get ya no matter what you do. In the case of the Swine Flu most of us will probably survive. However, if it meets up with deadly virulent cousin the bird flu were in real trouble. Tamiflu and other like viral drugs are no longer effective for the bird flu as many Chinese chicken farmers put it in their chicken feed as a preventative. Now the bird flu has mutated and resists these life saving anti-virals. I read that the only reason it isn’t infected us and spreading like the swine flu is that it doesn’t replicate well in the lower temperature of human nasal passages. However if infected there is about a %60 fatality rate. The mutant hybrid bird flu is still rampant throughout all of Asia although much less in Japan. If the Swine flu with it’s transmission ability meets up with bird flu and mutate together we are all in deep shit with or without masks. These days I not only sing Happy Birthday but I even wash out my nasal passages with iodine gargling solution as well. This is also suppose to be a great preventative. As often flu viruses hang out for a while on our nasal hairs until they start migrating inwards for their miraculous cellular cloning hi-jack.

As for the WHO recommendation, I not sure how much relevant it is towards Japan. The recommending that only sick people should wear masks is a PREDICATED on the belief that people are too poor or stupid to use masks correctly.

If I lived in a developing country where people buy one paper mask and try to make it last 24/7 for a week, then yeah, thumbs up to the WHO advice.

But this is Japan, the land of disposable chopstick and disposable お絞り {oshibori; wet hand towel} waste. Just as Adamu has faith in the workaholic Japanese public to go to work when sick, I have faith in the Japanese public to dispose of their masks the minute they can’t see the sharp crisp paper folds in it or the second its color is not equal to RGB {brilliant white} — whatever comes first.

Considering how many people the SEASONAL flu kills on average per year (250K‥500K; 36K in USA; 10K in JPN ※), yes, I think a billion masks in Japan are worth it if H1N1 is anything near as bad as the seasonal flu.

※ to put those numbers in perspective, 230K were killed by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Contrast that with the WHO recommendation, which is that only sick people and those immediately around them wear masks. In that situation almost no one on the street will be wearing them, and that makes no difference in terms of preventing or spreading the infection. So in this situation which would you choose – a) questionably useful masks everywhere; b) very few masks, which is definitely not dangerous? To me the choice is clear, especially since seeing so many sick-looking ninjas everywhere is kind of depressing.

Also note that the government is finally coming to its senses and reminding everyone that this outbreak is no worse than seasonal flu, so in other words there is not that much to worry about. And just to be clear, I think that on balance the government’s done a pretty good job of dealing with the disease. I just don’t see the need for an outlay of a billion masks under such dubious circumstances.

「主な理由は、マスクを正しく使用しないと逆に危険だからである。」
“The main reason [for not recommending masks] is that, if improperly used, masks have the opposite effect by being a hazard.”

So the REAL question is: are Japanese using masks correctly? I see most people use the masks only during commuting (not used all day), and changing their masks (as they are sold in big packs of at least 7 or more and are disposable) every day.

The WHO/CDC seems to take their position on masks because not because masks don’t help per se, but rather because they believe the world population, on average, is stupid, and they should governments should refrain from dispensing advice that a moron can’t handle.

Which is a little ironic, because WHO/CDC also recommend condoms even though a condom, in the hands of a moron, is only 86% effective (for preventing pregnancy). In the hands of a someone that uses them correctly, they’re 98% effective.