A Call for 21st Century Government in Japan

Aceface kindly pointed me to this, a scanned pdf of the Japanese-language “Flying Object Information” form, filled out by hand by a Japan bureaucrat. It contains the basic information on the missile that flew over Japan on Sunday, noting where it was spotted (to the west of Akita prefecture) and when and where it left Japan’s territorial sphere. Notice also the painfully low resolution of the scan (200dpi?), such that the font is jagged, and you can see random black dots where the scan was imperfect.

The Japanese government has been doing its best to show the public that it is being diligent and fully in-control of the North Korea missile situation. The day of the launch, news clips showed fresh young agency bureaucrats in the Self Defense Force and other affiliated government agencies in rural Akita and Iwate prefecture literally sprinting between rooms when the launch was announced. The public disclosure of the pdf linked above is yet another part of looking busy. They’re doing their absolute best to look like they control the situation when they are almost entirely helpless. Tobias has more on this here and here.

I give them an “A” for effort in looking busy. But the stubborn refusal of the Japanese to use modern technology in the most basic of internal management systems is just revolting. Communications in every modern western organization today are handled electronically — nothing needs to be filled out by hand, and there aren’t “runners” in the halls of the Pentagon and Whitehouse to implement and communicate important information. (In the rare situation that data must be taken by hand, it is punched into a database or system through data entry, and raw handwritten documents that aren’t fit for public scrutiny aren’t voluntarily disclosed to the world). Japan has the best hi-tech gadgets in the world, but so much of the busy work of government (and industry) is still handled by this type of paper scrawl, and throwing raw manpower at problems instead of trying to make systems of operation and management efficient or streamlined. All of this means that government in Japan circa 2009 is backwards. This simply must change.

In other news related to the DPRK missile launch, a majority of Americans would support a military response to the missile launch, 2012 Republican presidential hopeful Gingrich says he would have destroyed the missile before it was launched, and in case you didn’t hear it, despite all the chest-thumping from Pyongyang, the launch was actually a failure.

42 thoughts on “A Call for 21st Century Government in Japan”

  1. Well,at least they “typed” place of the launch(North Korea) and which way the flying object was heading(east).

  2. I know I have been here too long when I didn’t see anything amiss about frantic message runners manning an emergency alert computer system. They definitely fulfilled the propaganda requirement of looking busy and attentive.

    Looking at the story of the mistaken announcement on Saturday, manual/inefficient communication wasn’t the direct cause, but it *was* a cause of considerable confusion after the correction was sent five minutes later.. the people following the emergency notification system had to scramble to “re-run” around to correct the information.
    http://www.asahi.com/special/08001/TKY200904040148.html

  3. I was on Sado when the launched happened, and saw the TV news there that night. How did the Niigata prefectural government notify the islanders of the launch and initiate the emergency response? By fax!

  4. “By fax!”

    I was actually imaging Charles Jenkins knocking on your doors and gives warning to the islanders….

  5. That’s actually a pretty compelling case. I want some of those labels! It feels like The Onion is putting just as much effort into the fake news as CNN does on the real news.

  6. I’m constantly amazed at the production values of The Onion videos. Getting the actors is easy enough in NYC, but the studio sets look as good as the real news shows.

  7. Bringing back the topic to the main track.

    Personally,I feel hand written fax is tiny issue compared to other non-operational schemes such as,say,the”peace”constitution,missile defense and the U.S-Japan security treaty.

  8. “say,the”peace”constitution,missile defense and the U.S-Japan security treaty.”

    Ace, what do you favor instead of all that?

  9. Japan may not have it’s own brand of”Obama”,but we certainly need someone to say “Change” and “YES,WE CAN”.
    Might we should start from the constitution.

  10. Aceface, it’s random comments like that that make you sound like a rightwinger on this blog (when in fact you’re a soft DPJ supporter!).

    Those are entirely different, no? The peace constitution is a bland assertion that has long been usurped by pragmatism and reality. Hand written forms and notice by fax are operational flaws. So I think the topics are apples and oranges. (That being said, I completely agree with you.)

  11. “The peace constitution is a bland assertion that has long been usurped by pragmatism and reality.”

    I tend to think that, the way it was written, it was grounded in reality and usurped by idealism for some forty-seven years and is just now getting back to the point. But those are perhaps my pinko-liberal-institutionalist-internationalist tendencies at play.

  12. So what do you guys favour instead of the US-Japan security treaty? A cautious middle path between the US and China with an increased UN role and renewed partnership with “middle powers” like Germany has been on my mind lately….

    And… I wouldn’t mind the nuclear debate happening if it were an alternative to a conventional arms race in East Asia….

    Re: Ace’s rightwingedness – he’s probably gone farther in his condemnations of wartime militarism than anybody else in these comments…. so I think that you would be right at home with the DPJ left faction AND their right. Which is probably where I would be as well. I can’t vote, but I have convinced my in-laws to vote DPJ….

  13. “Aceface, it’s random comments like that that make you sound like a rightwinger on this blog (when in fact you’re a soft DPJ supporter!).”

    Or tend to think like 57% of Americans would do under same circumstances…
    I think I’ve hung around with you guys much too long.

    The thing is me and Japan are more connected with each others.
    You see,I don’t “Observe”Japan,I live there.And I have nowhere else to go.
    Which leads to the conclusion that “Japan”being more important in my life than some of other posters on this blog.

    “Hand written forms and notice by fax are operational flaws. So I think the topics are apples and oranges.”

    The constitution,the missile defense,US-Japan security treaty and hand written fax.All of these are part of the operation called “securing Japan”.No I don’t think they are apples and oranges.They are fruits of the same tree.

  14. “A cautious middle path between the US and China with an increased UN role and renewed partnership with “middle powers” like Germany has been on my mind lately….”

    I think that is about right, but leaning somewhat towards the United States without the usual sycophancy, thank you very much. So yeah, the DPJ position.

    The nuclear debate would probably end up confirming that Japanese nuclear weapons are not a good idea.

    “I can’t vote, but I have convinced my in-laws to vote DPJ….”

    Damn, I gotta work on my Japanese host family.

  15. “Or tend to think like 57% of Americans would do under same circumstances…”

    You are kidding right? More like 95%. Imagine what would have happened if Cuba had actually tested one of those missiles…

    “Which leads to the conclusion that “Japan”being more important in my life than some of other posters on this blog.”

    Well yes, but I know that some of us have people in Japan, including family – and people who might as well be – that we would like to see remain safe from harm.* And most of the people on this blog still live in country, right? I sincerely don’t want to have any debito-like “you don’t live here so you shouldn’t have an opinion” arguments with you, Ace.

    *not that I think that a North Korean missile will cause harm to anybody in Japan any time soon. Or anybody, for that matter. Except maybe the people who assure Dear Leader that the test would succeed.

  16. “You are kidding right? More like 95%. Imagine what would have happened if Cuba had actually tested one of those missiles…”

    The number is actually the quote from the links in the original post.

    “I sincerely don’t want to have any debito-like “you don’t live here so you shouldn’t have an opinion” arguments with you, Ace.”

    That,I wouldn’t do.However,I would probably ask under what qualification does the person preaching me what’s “right” or what’s my right or whether I’m right(or left).

    And national defense is one field that is supposed to be strictly kept by members of nation state that their demand and opinion to be reflected above anything else.And Japan has been an outlier in this regard for much too long.You know this,Bryce.

    Nonchalant attitudes like this bugs me.Totally.
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/29/gates-prepared-respond-north-korea-missile-launch/

  17. “The number is actually the quote from the links in the original post.”

    True, though I think “under the same circumstances” here would connote some sort of tinpot state flinging a missile – sorry, flying object – over Florida.

    “Nonchalant attitudes like this bugs me.Totally.”

    I’m not sure it is nonchalance. There really is no benefit in attempting to shoot down a North Korean “rocket”, if, and this is a big if, you have the technology to track its trajectory and determine that it is not likely to be landing in Japan. You either end up destroying a missile that would otherwise land in the sea, depriving yourselves of an opportunity to retrieve it and gain some insight into NorK missile – sorry, satellite – technology that you might not otherwise have; or the ABM misses and places the capabilities of your brand new missile shield under doubt, thus eroding it power as a deterrent. Both scenarios undermine Japan’s security. But if I were the SecDef, I also wouldn’t be telling media organizations what my rationale for not shooting the missile down were in advance.

    “However,I would probably ask under what qualification does the person preaching me what’s “right” or what’s my right or whether I’m right(or left).”

    How right you are!

  18. Do you think all the paper in the offices has to do with the Japanese “chain of command” office culture?

    Also, if Japanese government offices actually switched to all digital communications, what would they do for “hankos”?

    For a country that says “eco”-friendly so much, it’s ironic how much paper they waste in their offices.

  19. “You see,I don’t “Observe”Japan,I live there.And I have nowhere else to go.”
    Can’t you get a spouse visa for Mongolia?

  20. Also, if Japanese government offices actually switched to all digital communications, what would they do for “hankos”?

    There are computer systems nowadays which duplicate the traditional approval form on a local network. Basically, you type up the proposal, upload it to the system with whatever attachments you want to circulate, enter the approvers, and then the system asks each approver to comment or approve it in the traditional sequence. (e.g. by an email saying “Proposal XYZ is awaiting your approval.”)

    That said, I work at a large company which is supposedly technologically progressive by Japanese standards, and this technology has only been demonstrated to us. Everyone is still printing out forms and collecting hankos whenever something needs to be done. It keeps mostly-helpless people employed, I guess.

  21. @Bryce

    This is what the man said in the interview for not shooting it down.

    “I think if we had an aberrant missile, one that was headed for Hawaii, that looked like it was headed for Hawaii or something like that, we might consider it,”

    This is what the dude demanded back in 2007.
    http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20070517a2.html

    @Roy
    “Can’t you get a spouse visa for Mongolia?”

    No.I have to pay 5000 yen every time I go into the country and it expires in 30 days.

  22. “This is what the man said…”

    Well, I’m not too sure that the United States *can* shoot down a missile in its terminal phase that is headed for Japan. This isn’t merely a question of having the targeting technology, it is about deployment as well. I’m pretty sure the range of the American terminal phase (PAC-3) interceptors extends not too much further than their bases. Somebody might be able to correct me on this.

    As for shooting a missile down in its boost phase, I’m pretty sure that if there was any indication that the missile was headed towards Japan, the United States would have taken it out. There were, altogether, nine Aegis ships in the Japan Sea, *seven of which were armed with boost-phase interceptors.*

    However,I don’t think that there was any notion whatsoever that Kim would actually target Japan with the Unha-2. If the NK leadership are nuts and wanted to attack Japan, why use an untested two or three stage ballistic missile when there are cheaper options available, including other missiles that the Norks *have* tested? Perhaps more crucially, why practically announce it weeks in advance?

    So, I think any talk of intercepting rockets during their boost phase (which includes announcing flat-out that America would defend Japan from missiles) is counterproductive. Gates can say “We’ll knock down a missile heading for Japan or Hawai’i” and invite rage from the peacenik section of Japan – as well as China and, yes, North Korea and maybe Russia too – for admitting that, if the technology that we are not really sure about tells him to, he would shoot down a “peaceful satellite launch” inside foreign territory. Or he can simply make a vague statement based on the actual capabilities of the U.S. terminal phase intercept options.

    Or perhaps he was speaking off the cuff. Or maybe any direct statements he did make about Japan were edited out of a news source that is targeted at American consumers, and a highly parochial section of American consumers, at that. Gates did talk about Japan in the interview you cited, and practically noted the American and Japanese positions were the same.

    In any case, I certainly don’t think it implies a weakened commitment to Japan’s defence.

  23. I’m pretty sure the range of the American terminal phase (PAC-3) interceptors *in Japan* extends not too much further than *U.S. military* bases.

  24. I feel a bit confident that I can discertain who is right and who is left, or who is conservative and who is progressive etc… in the historical contexts in Japan. Of course, Aceface isn’t an usual right-winger at all even if he seems to consider the nuclearisation of Japan as an urgent option.

    I think this sankei piece written by Mr. Komori is important and symptomatic.
    http://sankei.jp.msn.com/world/america/090405/amr0904052348015-n1.htm

    In fact, Mr. Gates’ remark have given rise to massive speculations and the autonomists have used it as a proof of the meaninglessness of US-Japan security treaty. I am not a Gaulliste a la japononaise and I think his remark is a bit too vague to interpret and people read too much, but I believe Gaimusho should ask him to clarify his point to appease insecure feelings of Japanese citizens.

    I think this incident has probably changed the security consciousness and imagination of the ordinary citizens. In a sense, it is the first virtual military exercise involving the whole nation in post-war Japan. This social dimension is important, I believe.

  25. oops. japononaise →japonaise

    Our SDF had never been so visible and “real” as it was. This televized event may change the popular perception of SDF.

    I understand the pro-american conservatives’ anxiety and the fear of democrat government inclining to regional wilsonism in East Asia, that is, to slash defense spending and to replace deterrence and alliances with diplomatic arrangements…

  26. “Or he can simply make a vague statement based on the actual capabilities of the U.S. terminal phase intercept options.”

    See,that’s the point.U.S-Japan alliance is all about vague statement and not exactly based on the actual capabilities of military muscle.If our adversaries find this as paper tiger,or Washignton isn’t fully relying on it in designing it’s Asian policy,more than half of it’s importance declines.

    Missile defense is a system far from perfect technologically.But then so are NK missiles.Leaders should show more confidence in operation even as a bluff.Otherwise it will lose it’s main objective,to deter threats enforced by Pyongyang.
    And here Aso was correct.Even if MD miss the target,that probably won’t be a big loss for Japan internally,for the nation would share the anxiety and acknowledge the need for further development in defense capability,what ever that is.

    The Gates interview came almost at the same time with his decision of shutting down F-22 factory line,something SDF was desperately wanted.Another crucial blow to the alliance.

    I also don’t buy Gates soundbites being edited down,considering it’s FOX NEWS.If there were any hawkish rhetoric within Gates interview,they would have edited it.Anyway,Gates should’ve known how TV crew would cook his word in the first place.

  27. “Leaders should show more confidence in operation even as a bluff.Otherwise it will lose it’s main objective,to deter threats enforced by Pyongyang.”

    No THIS is exactly the point. A “bluff” only works when you are holding cards that no one else can see.

    It is clear – extremely clear to even the Norks – that the U.S. could *not* have shot down a missile that had failed and was heading towards, say, Aomori. Which means that any pledge to shoot down the missile if it “seemed” to be heading towards Japan in its boost phase would only have ENCOURAGED, not detered the North Korean launch, if there were any doubts that they were going to launch in the first place. What greater PR coup would their have been for Kim and co than to have the Americans shoot down a “satellite bearing rocket” over NK territory?

    So. Everyone believed – no, were as close to knowing as they could – that the launch would happen no matter what they did. So what to do if you are in Gates’ position? Threaten to shoot it down and look stupid when you don’t/can’t? Threaten to shoot it down and hand Kim a PR victory? Or play it cool and, along with your ally, condemn the NK regime for being irresponsible in the likely event that the rocket fails, making you both look “magnanimous”.

    I think it is pretty obvious which of these options is the most sensible (this is not wisdom in hindsight, by the way – even before the launch, I thought that the best thing for both Japan and the U.S. to do was to take suitable precautions, but treat the Norks with muted contempt), and I wouldn’t be surprised to find that this episode has actually strengthened mutual trust between those in government circles, even if it has put the willies up many private individuals in Japan.

  28. “A “bluff” only works when you are holding cards that no one else can see.”

    No,bluff only works when you are holding cards that everyone thinks you own but can’t be fore sure.And you first have to pretend yourself believing you have ace in your hands to pursuade someone else to believe that.

    “So what to do if you are in Gates’ position? Threaten to shoot it down and look stupid when you don’t/can’t? Threaten to shoot it down and hand Kim a PR victory? Or play it cool and, along with your ally, condemn the NK regime for being irresponsible in the likely event that the rocket fails, making you both look “magnanimous”.”

    No.That is something either Hamada or Aso can do.Defense Secretary of the United States has other option.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/21/AR2006062101518.html

    “I wouldn’t be surprised to find that this episode has actually strengthened mutual trust between those in government circles, even if it has put the willies up many private individuals in Japan.”

    Especially,when all you’ve got is not-so-reliable ally.Sure.
    But to my eyes,it is just as clear that alliance with U.S is old and ineffective as hand written fax.

  29. “Therefore, if North Korea persists in its launch preparations, the United States should immediately make clear its intention to strike and destroy the North Korean Taepodong missile before it can be launched. This could be accomplished, for example, by a cruise missile launched from a submarine carrying a high-explosive warhead. The blast would be similar to the one that killed terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq. But the effect on the Taepodong would be devastating. The multi-story, thin-skinned missile filled with high-energy fuel is itself explosive — the U.S. airstrike would puncture the missile and probably cause it to explode. The carefully engineered test bed for North Korea’s nascent nuclear missile force would be destroyed, and its attempt to retrogress to Cold War threats thwarted. There would be no damage to North Korea outside the immediate vicinity of the missile gantry.”

    Sweet. So kill a few scientists and low level military personnel and make North Korea look like the innocent party, while probably disgusting a large sector of the Japanese public at the same time – not to mention increasing the admittedly slight possibility of a NK artillery reprisal on Seoul, or, with the Rodongs, Japan. All to stave off a situation that is very unlikely to cause harm to anyone and may even make the North Koreans look stupid. What an awesome tactic!

    Anyway, the original point that I had issue with was that you claimed Gates’ (or American) public statements about the possibility of a missile launch were misplaced (or “nonchalant”). I think they got it about right. If you want to make this about the general effectiveness or otherwise of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, I think (a) that’s a much broader argument, given the issue areas the Alliance covers, and (b) will have to wait for another thread.

  30. “Sweet. So kill a few scientists and low level military personnel and make North Korea look like the innocent party, while probably disgusting a large sector of the Japanese public at the same time”

    I have been Japanese for 38 years.And I can guarantee you.Norks won’t get much sympathy from Japanese no more.It all dried up in 2002.And Pyongyang had only themselves to blame.

    “not to mention increasing the admittedly slight possibility of a NK artillery reprisal on Seoul, or, with the Rodongs, Japan. All to stave off a situation that is very unlikely to cause harm to anyone and may even make the North Koreans look stupid. What an awesome tactic!”

    Give Kim Jong Il an ultimatum either he gets six-party talks or OPLAN5030.
    The dear leader won’t risk his life for a few scientists and low level military personnels.Kim Jong Il had already sacrificed thousands for the sake of his dynasty already,why not few more?

    If we sit and do not act,Pyongyang will probably escalates the situation by conducting another nuclear test.Then what?
    If we had acted in ’94,Pyongyang didn’t have nukes.We waited.Big mistake.
    Now they have Taepodong that will reach the U.S mainland in the near future.
    Washington would start making negotiation with Pyongyang and giving them Pakistan-status in return of Koreans keeping nukes to themselves and not selling them out to whoever knocking their doors.

    “If you want to make this about the general effectiveness or otherwise of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, I think (a) that’s a much broader argument, given the issue areas the Alliance covers, and (b) will have to wait for another thread.”

    a)
    the alliance dies once it fail to cover the most important issue,the security of Japan,that is.Most Japanese,including myself have zero interest in sending our personnel to Afghanistan.
    Added to that,the American presence may work against our effort to adopt new strategic environment dominated by the coming U.S-China bigemony.In that case,Americans become our luggage and not asset.

    b)
    And this we have to wait until Curzon to write a new post.Maybe he should write one about John Mccain who happens to be in Tokyo right now.
    http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/s/article/2009041001000307.html

  31. We should learn from SK. Its government and media seem to be good at complaining loudly and quickly about any remarks of US officials which (they think) could undermine the deterrence. While I don’t think Mr. Gates’ remark is especially wrong, if it is necessary, the seeds of distrust should be carefully removed because the era of distrust seems to be approaching. This is a psychological effect the current US-Japan Alliance entails structurally and it will be amplified by changing strategic landscapes if Japan continues to be reluctant to revise its grand strategy.

    Personally I am worried about NK agents rather than about its missiles. I wonder why politicians are so reluctant to make the anti-spy law. It’s cheaper and more effective than MD.

  32. >Added to that,the American presence may work against our effort to adopt new strategic environment dominated by the coming U.S-China bigemony.In that case,Americans become our luggage and not asset.

    I agree with this point. But I think we should concentrate on achieving what we can do right now. After all, our honorable “political pygmy” status is the result of what we wished.

  33. Not just SK that Japan should learn from. Countries from Canada to the Caucasus are starting to throw some “benign neglect” America’s way.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/uc/20090410/cm_uc_crpbux/op_339621;_ylt=ApxHiWvX1Tm7LVkzFIGHBr_9wxIF

    In 50 (or maybe even 5) years, when historians look back on the American-Japanese alliance in the early 2000’s, it will be hard to get their heads around why Japanese boots (and check books) were on the ground in Iraq while the US has done practically nothing to improve Japan’s security against North Korea apart from extending an atomic deterrent that is widely regarded to be there for all allied democracies anyway. From the present POV, it may not be hard to understand, but it is hard to stomach.

    There are three major options for Japan – a conventional pre-emptive strike, cooperation with China and SK (and the US as leader of “the West”, but largely a liability for any bilateral settlement) toward gradual normalization of relations with North Korea, and the development of a Japanese nuclear deterrent. The American-Japanese alliance seems to prevent ALL of them, including the (naive peacenik) option that I favor.

    And meanwhile Japan is castigated by “America first” commentators for not pulling weight for Afghanistan and encouraged (bullied) to increase the types of conventional armament that are useless (at best, they could actually make Japan a target) for Japanese security andtheoretically serve to further US interests if the Jieitai are dragged to Iran or into a scrap with China where America’s security would be placed first in any wider operation. In this way of thinking, the Jieitai (and missile defense which has been termed ‘crucial to Israel’s existance’ but I would like to see how much Israel is paying toward development compared with the Japanese numbers) are oriented more toward the protection of Israel (a bit of hyperbole, really broader US interests) than Japan.

    Note – I think that Japan should indeed contribute to the security of Israel (and other countries that may be on the receiving end of attack, including other MidEast countries), but not at the expense of its own security.

  34. Actually,I’m not through with this topic yet.However,I’m busy in offline for the moment…..

  35. M-Bone
    I believe the majority of the Japanese may agree with your view: a cautious middle power path, while they feel anxiety about NK missiles and angry about abduction issues. In a sense, I am sided with this position, though I am probably more pragmatic and less idealistic than the supporters of this school.

    I have been focusing on minority voices because they represent something which may worry some Japan observers but may get relatively strong in the middle run. I don’t want to label these voices in a derogative term because so many try and error are now needed. In fact, many revisions (including the revision of the constitution) are necessary for Japan to be a smart middle power, I think.

  36. Ah, Mr. Harrison. one of “bad advisers” Victor Cha named. This lovely guy contributes solely to undermine the extended deterrence.

  37. The Yomiuri says:

    北朝鮮のミサイル発射時に活用された政府の緊急ネットワーク「エムネット」の情報を、多くの自治体が夜間や休日に受信できない状態になっていることがわかった。担当職員がいないため受信用端末の電源を切っているか、当直員が離れた部屋にいて端末を操作できないことなどが理由。各自治体とも「経費と人手が不足し、24時間待機は無理」としており、監督する内閣官房も対応を検討する。

    http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20090416-OYT1T00623.htm

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