I agree about the Mainland tourism boom – in Kyushu signs are often in Korean second rather than English. (The new Kyushu National Museum also makes a big deal out of links with the Mainland in a much better way than the older three: looks like it’s very Asia-oriented (pun?).)

I don’t think it is really possible to say one way or the other that the Japanese “countryside” is dying, however. (First you have to make sure you are talking about the same “countryside” as everyone else: I often get the feeling that for Tokyoites, Osaka is inaka.) There are many inaka regions that are suffering severe population loss and don’t have the attractions of Nagiso or Izumo (both of which probably tend to attract more ‘baba’ tourists than, say, DisneySea… Places like Kenrokuen in Kanazawa are also more grey than green at times). One of the reasons for the great Heisei Amalgamation was the depopulation of the rural countryside: smaller towns and villages could no longer take in enough taxes to cover their costs.

For the larger cities it’s not so glum, although as pointed out in a recent (March) issue of ‘Toshi Mondai’, cities are suffering from the ongoing doughnut effect (where they become full of sugar and fat and are covered in chocolate), and along with this the downtown labour force is ageing. Infrastructure costs aren’t going down as fast as tax revenues here either apparently. The government has set up any number of committees and laws to revitalise the downtowns, but with little effect. As a stroll along someplace like downtown Matsue can suggest…. The government is trying to get urban planning to redefine itself, create ‘compact cities’ and attract people back into the centres, and has been for some time. Periodic spasms about decentralising Tokyo may also play into this in some way.

And yeah, Japanese agriculture is a bit of a joke compared to countries which make a living from it. There are already masses of fields lying fallow, an issue that has been going on for god-knows how long now.

I’d take below-average income in Japan (and frequently have) over above-average income in China any day. Japan will depopulate, its GDP may weaken relatively (which is all the media seems to care about really) even if it actually expands, but whenever I have heard people over the past dozen years talk about the decline of Japan, I am reminded of the comment Isaac Asimov used in “Foundation” regarding the Empire: it may be a bit worn and tatty at the edges, but the centre is still “incomparably mighty”.

Also, this is just people starting farming—more people are moving to the inaka for other reasons. Factories, for example, are becoming decentralized to some degree. The Kurashiki now has over 1000 factories employing over 40,000. There are many ways to define “inaka” but Kurashiki fits in my books. Rural Hiroshima prefecture (the middle of Chugoku being an undeniable inaka) has also undergone a recent boom.

One more inaka boom industry—tourism. More tourists from China and Korea going to some areas like Beppu (Japanese always put down Oita as inaka so I am going to group Beppu as well). Also, old Japanese ladies are a financial force that cannot be underestimated. If you have gone into a depato lately, I’m sure that you have been amazed (or appalled) by the numbers of old ladies with the big bucks to spend. Anyway, domestic travel is HUGE for this group. I’ve been to some out of the way areas (Izumo in Shimane prefecture, Nagiso in Nagano prefecture) lately that seem to be booming with “baba tourists”. I don’t have any stats for this one, however, just a personal observation.

Bottom line—the Japanese countryside does not seem to be dying. There is PLENTY of potential for rationalization and streamlining of Japanese agriculture. While it is doubtful that the inaka will see any kind of significant “golden age” in the near future, I think that large homes within an hour or two train ride from major cities (or major regional cities like Kagoshima, Oita, Hiroshima, Matsuyama, etc. Japan has over 30 cities with populations 400,000 or greater) will be enough of a draw for some.

Aside from a few people with an independent streak moving to the countryside, is there any example of a real trend?

Believe it or not, there is also an “inaka kurashi” boom in Japan at present with a small but significant group of people electing to leave the cities behind. There have been a variety of TV programs and magazine spreads about this.

You are also ignoring some other factors like the fact that couples living in the middle of the big cities tend to have fewer (or no) children – making for more living space. You have to look at a problem like this on a per household basis. The statistics are easy to get (Asahi Almanac).

Maybe. I think internal flows of population are going to have far more impact on Japan’s social and economic landscape than any immigration trends. The places that retain their vitality in a Japan with a shrinking population will be Tokyo, Aichi, Kansai, and northern Kyushu, and these cities will remain crowded and filled with cramped homes. The Industrial Revolution brought young people to the cities once; it’s interesting to see the same flow again with no revolution beyond “that’s the only place jobs are anymore.”

Beyond that, you’re going to have a lot of farmland (and a lot of it fallow), some industrial complexes placed where lots of flat land can be had for cheap (Nagano, Tochigi), and the mountains. And while a smaller population dividing up that empty land might make for a better-sounding per capita living space, the number of people actually heading out to get themselves spacious yards will stay quite low.

I for one married to a mongolian woman and adopted her son.He goes to public
school and integrated very well and took him only a year to learn the language.
(he is forgetting mongolian and that is our concern)

In my days I found no student with foreign background (although there could be
one or two zainithi koreans),but in my son’s school of 80 kids in 2nd grade,
there is one peruvian and one kid whose mother is chinese and I must say that
is a revolutionary change for Tokorozawa!
There is a statistics that says 15% of all marriages that occur in this country in the last decade are interenational marriages,and this happens almost everywhere in the country.Even my lawyer is hiring a Russian who is doing his legal work hundling just the case for russian male brides.

If you want see the future of multi ethnic Japan,go to Gunma,especially Oizumi,
Ohta,or Isezaki.I made a research on Isezaki once and the city has resident from
more than 70 countries,which consist about 15% of entire population.Oizumi is
occupied by Japanese Brazillians, and they owns supermarkets, realesate agencies
and dental clinics.

The foreign community is growing in Japan,but it is clandestine for the eye of the western expat.It will not make japanese society multi thnic in single leap,but
it will change the japanese state of mind, uchi to soto.