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	<title>Comments on: I am going to miss Koizumi SO MUCH &#8211; no for what he accomplished, but for what he DID</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/</link>
	<description>Photos, Stories and articles on East Asia</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 13:54:22 -0700</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Mutantfrog Travelogue &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Will Abe last past July? Depends on the DPJ</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-68063</link>
		<dc:creator>Mutantfrog Travelogue &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Will Abe last past July? Depends on the DPJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Sep 2006 09:01:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-68063</guid>
		<description>[...] Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Robert Alan Feldman lays out the possibly dangerous prospects of an Abe government based on the concerns of domestic and foreign investors. Domestic investors, as can be expected, have the most informed opinion and are most concerned about the following: Regardless of his campaign promises, Abe will likely not have Koizumi&#8217;s political wherewithal to push reform efforts, for the most basic reason: &#8220;Unlike Koizumi, Abe is not a maverick. Abe has yet to prove to the satisfaction of investors that he will say no to vested interests, instead of saying that he will say no.&#8221; It also won&#8217;t help that Abe is boring (lacks &#8220;Koizumi&#8217;s sound-bite style&#8221; which is effective in selling policies to the people). Second, the Abe government might not last long if his party does poorly in next July&#8217;s upper house elections. Two major issues that have a good chance of hurting the LDP are worsened relations with China (pretty likely), or if Abe caves in to demands for increased pork spending in the rural areas (also likely&#8230; Feldman sees this as sure to backfire since more spending in this era of disastrous fiscal debt might not do much for the rural voters but will almost certainly anger urban unaffiliated voters which have proven a decisive voting bloc recently). The fall of the Abe cabinet could result in the &#8220;frightening scenario&#8221; of &#8220;a return to the revolving door prime ministers of the 1990s&#8221; which was perhaps one of the biggest reasons behind that decade or so of stagnation. Unfortunately, Feldman&#8217;s conclusion seems only to support the most frightening scenario since his recommendations are unlikely to be followed: &#8220;In the end, I believe that both foreign and domestic investors need to see clarity of message, strong personnel choices, concrete policy agendas with legislative deadlines, and a focus on issues that will help Japan continue allocate resources efficiently.&#8221; [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Robert Alan Feldman lays out the possibly dangerous prospects of an Abe government based on the concerns of domestic and foreign investors. Domestic investors, as can be expected, have the most informed opinion and are most concerned about the following: Regardless of his campaign promises, Abe will likely not have Koizumi&#8217;s political wherewithal to push reform efforts, for the most basic reason: &#8220;Unlike Koizumi, Abe is not a maverick. Abe has yet to prove to the satisfaction of investors that he will say no to vested interests, instead of saying that he will say no.&#8221; It also won&#8217;t help that Abe is boring (lacks &#8220;Koizumi&#8217;s sound-bite style&#8221; which is effective in selling policies to the people). Second, the Abe government might not last long if his party does poorly in next July&#8217;s upper house elections. Two major issues that have a good chance of hurting the <span class="caps">LDP</span> are worsened relations with China (pretty likely), or if Abe caves in to demands for increased pork spending in the rural areas (also likely&#8230; Feldman sees this as sure to backfire since more spending in this era of disastrous fiscal debt might not do much for the rural voters but will almost certainly anger urban unaffiliated voters which have proven a decisive voting bloc recently). The fall of the Abe cabinet could result in the &#8220;frightening scenario&#8221; of &#8220;a return to the revolving door prime ministers of the 1990s&#8221; which was perhaps one of the biggest reasons behind that decade or so of stagnation. Unfortunately, Feldman&#8217;s conclusion seems only to support the most frightening scenario since his recommendations are unlikely to be followed: &#8220;In the end, I believe that both foreign and domestic investors need to see clarity of message, strong personnel choices, concrete policy agendas with legislative deadlines, and a focus on issues that will help Japan continue allocate resources efficiently.&#8221; [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Adamu</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62710</link>
		<dc:creator>Adamu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Aug 2006 04:30:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62710</guid>
		<description>Indeed, as were some of the other pushes for government transparency/e-govt and all that. Koizumi doesn&#039;t necessarily deserve credit for things that simply expanded during his term in office, so sorry if I made it sound that way. What I was getting at is not that Koizumi accomplished those things, but that there is a great deal of political change going on in Japan that the Murphy article doesn&#039;t seem to acknowledge.  

Here&#039;s a Japanese explanation of the FOIA system:
http://www.soumu.go.jp/gyoukan/kanri/jyohokokai/gaiyo.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Indeed, as were some of the other pushes for government transparency/e-govt and all that. Koizumi doesn&#8217;t necessarily deserve credit for things that simply expanded during his term in office, so sorry if I made it sound that way. What I was getting at is not that Koizumi accomplished those things, but that there is a great deal of political change going on in Japan that the Murphy article doesn&#8217;t seem to acknowledge.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a Japanese explanation of the <span class="caps">FOIA</span> system:<br />
<a href="http://www.soumu.go.jp/gyoukan/kanri/jyohokokai/gaiyo.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.soumu.go.jp/gyoukan/kanri/jyohokokai/gaiyo.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Bryce</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62709</link>
		<dc:creator>Bryce</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Aug 2006 04:20:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62709</guid>
		<description>Adamu, Wasn&#039;t the FOIA legislation pre-Koizumi?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Adamu, Wasn&#8217;t the <span class="caps">FOIA</span> legislation pre-Koizumi?</p>
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		<title>By: Adamu</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62703</link>
		<dc:creator>Adamu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Aug 2006 02:19:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62703</guid>
		<description>Here&#039;s the thing about Abe. I called him boring, but he really does make some forceful, straight-sounding comments on the subjects he cares about, which is what makes him so popular.

But the worry I hear from some people is that he&#039;s too young and unlike the savvy &quot;seikyoku no Koizumi&quot; he&#039;ll be even more beholden to the interest groups (izokukai etc) he&#039;s been courting.

Also, what I think we&#039;re seeing in Abe&#039;s &quot;pre-emptive attack&quot; &quot;getting the ability to  and other supposedly hawkish statements is less like fantasizing about invasion but more like posturing between Japan, Korea, NK, and China, much like the Yasukuni visits. It&#039;s a dangerous chess game to be sure, because once Abe makes such a statement he puts the ball in NK/China&#039;s court and they could do something that could force Japan&#039;s hand to avoid losing face.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s the thing about Abe. I called him boring, but he really does make some forceful, straight-sounding comments on the subjects he cares about, which is what makes him so popular.</p>
<p>But the worry I hear from some people is that he&#8217;s too young and unlike the savvy &#8220;seikyoku no Koizumi&#8221; he&#8217;ll be even more beholden to the interest groups (izokukai etc) he&#8217;s been courting.</p>
<p>Also, what I think we&#8217;re seeing in Abe&#8217;s &#8220;pre-emptive attack&#8221; &#8220;getting the ability to  and other supposedly hawkish statements is less like fantasizing about invasion but more like posturing between Japan, Korea, NK, and China, much like the Yasukuni visits. It&#8217;s a dangerous chess game to be sure, because once Abe makes such a statement he puts the ball in NK/China&#8217;s court and they could do something that could force Japan&#8217;s hand to avoid losing face.</p>
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		<title>By: Mutantfrog</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62643</link>
		<dc:creator>Mutantfrog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2006 12:29:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62643</guid>
		<description>Horie technically ran as an independent who supported Koizumi&#039;s reform bill, and not as a member of the LDP ticket. The LDP candidate was a postal reform opponent, so Koizumi basically ran Horie against what is supposed to be his own party. I think had Horie won, this would have been more widely recognized as the radical move that it was.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Horie technically ran as an independent who supported Koizumi&#8217;s reform bill, and not as a member of the <span class="caps">LDP</span> ticket. The <span class="caps">LDP</span> candidate was a postal reform opponent, so Koizumi basically ran Horie against what is supposed to be his own party. I think had Horie won, this would have been more widely recognized as the radical move that it was.</p>
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		<title>By: Mulboyne</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62635</link>
		<dc:creator>Mulboyne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2006 11:51:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62635</guid>
		<description>Adamu - I&#039;d agree with that.  I may even cut and paste - sorry, &quot;rework&quot; - a couple of points for the next time I&#039;m inevitably asked about Murphy&#039;s piece.

Marxy - Not sure what the catalyst was for Horie&#039;s arrest. It&#039;s certainly true that some of the offences look remarkably similar to regular practices at other firms so it might look as if Horie was targeted specifically while others are ignored. On the other hand, given the range of indictments in the recent past, it is possible that these practices won&#039;t be acceptable in the future and Horie was a high-profile catch in a broader crackdown. Recruit Chairman Hiromasa Ezoe wasn&#039;t the only one rigging IPOs for his friends back in 1986 either but he was the one arrested. In fact, Japan&#039;s justice system, where an arrest still leads to a guilty verdict in a high proportion of cases, now appears more successful at prosecuting financial market crimes than  the US or the UK which is an odd turn of events.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Adamu &#8211; I&#8217;d agree with that.  I may even cut and paste &#8211; sorry, &#8220;rework&#8221; &#8211; a couple of points for the next time I&#8217;m inevitably asked about Murphy&#8217;s piece.</p>
<p>Marxy &#8211; Not sure what the catalyst was for Horie&#8217;s arrest. It&#8217;s certainly true that some of the offences look remarkably similar to regular practices at other firms so it might look as if Horie was targeted specifically while others are ignored. On the other hand, given the range of indictments in the recent past, it is possible that these practices won&#8217;t be acceptable in the future and Horie was a high-profile catch in a broader crackdown. Recruit Chairman Hiromasa Ezoe wasn&#8217;t the only one rigging IPOs for his friends back in 1986 either but he was the one arrested. In fact, Japan&#8217;s justice system, where an arrest still leads to a guilty verdict in a high proportion of cases, now appears more successful at prosecuting financial market crimes than  the US or the UK which is an odd turn of events.</p>
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		<title>By: Haisan</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62607</link>
		<dc:creator>Haisan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2006 07:22:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62607</guid>
		<description>I almost met Koizumi in Mongolia the other day. Kind of. I was in a car, leaving the airport, when all the cars on the road had to pull over and let him travel to the airport unimpeded.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I almost met Koizumi in Mongolia the other day. Kind of. I was in a car, leaving the airport, when all the cars on the road had to pull over and let him travel to the airport unimpeded.</p>
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		<title>By: The Marmot&#8217;s Hole &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Apologies, surrenders and Yasukuni</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62590</link>
		<dc:creator>The Marmot&#8217;s Hole &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Apologies, surrenders and Yasukuni</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2006 04:44:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62590</guid>
		<description>[...] Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister (and master Mongolian archer) Koizumi Junichiro marked Japan&#8217;s WW II surrender with&#8212;you guessed it&#8212;a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. Even more impressive, he managed to diss Chinese and South Korean leaders AND praise George W. Bush in the same sentence: &#8220;If Bush of the United States tells me not to go [to the shrine], would I stop? No, I would still go even then. But President Bush would not say anything so immature,&#8221; said Koizumi, one of George W. Bush&#8217;s closest foreign allies. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister (and master Mongolian archer) Koizumi Junichiro marked Japan&#8217;s <span class="caps">WW II</span> surrender with&#8212;you guessed it&#8212;a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. Even more impressive, he managed to diss Chinese and South Korean leaders <span class="caps">AND</span> praise George W. Bush in the same sentence: &#8220;If Bush of the United States tells me not to go [to the shrine], would I stop? No, I would still go even then. But President Bush would not say anything so immature,&#8221; said Koizumi, one of George W. Bush&#8217;s closest foreign allies. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: marxy</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62569</link>
		<dc:creator>marxy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2006 00:59:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62569</guid>
		<description>Was Horie&#039;s arrest not another &quot;Revenge of the Bureaucrats&quot; type attack on LDP power? I mean, the &lt;i&gt;inoshishi&lt;/i&gt; actually ran for office on the LDP ticket.

Also, you make a good point about Abe having no domestic policy ideas, but will he not be the most aggressively right-wing PM Japan has had in ages? Nakasone said some dumb things, but Abe seems to be daydreaming of a full-fledged invasion of NK.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Was Horie&#8217;s arrest not another &#8220;Revenge of the Bureaucrats&#8221; type attack on <span class="caps">LDP</span> power? I mean, the <i>inoshishi</i> actually ran for office on the <span class="caps">LDP</span> ticket.</p>
<p>Also, you make a good point about Abe having no domestic policy ideas, but will he not be the most aggressively right-wing <span class="caps">PM </span>Japan has had in ages? Nakasone said some dumb things, but Abe seems to be daydreaming of a full-fledged invasion of NK.</p>
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		<title>By: Adamu</title>
		<link>http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/comment-page-1/#comment-62566</link>
		<dc:creator>Adamu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2006 00:49:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.mutantfrog.com/2006/08/14/i-am-going-to-miss-koizumi-so-much-no-for-what-he-accomplished-but-for-what-he-did/#comment-62566</guid>
		<description>Sun bin - thanks for clearing that up. Any idea what&#039;s going on in the photo itself?

Mulboyne - Basically, I think Murphy is wrong about his claim that economic reforms are mere window dressing - this is a flaw that reminds me of van Wolferen (no such thing as a Japanese government, every policy is an abortive &quot;nonpolicy&quot;). As your examples show, there is most certainly a host of policy challenges facing Japan, and the debate over which path to follow is often waged between ministries rather than in the Diet or among public interest groups. Sure, Japan has no intention of rocking the international financial system, but that doesn&#039;t let Japan off the hook for finding ways to stay competitive and fight stagnation in the runup to its demographic crunch, for starters. Things like removing government employee status from 260k postal workers aren&#039;t horse and pony shows for Washington - they have real consequences that, handled badly, could spell doom for the ruling party and the bureaucratic stranglehold on power in general.

For one thing, the GOJ is much more transparent than it&#039;s ever been. Major developments include the advent of FOIA requests and public comment procedures. Also, during the Koizumi years a wealth of government stats/white papers have become available for free online. These developments give private groups and opposition leaders more tools with which to force transparency from the government. Of course, the first two were basically pushed through by the US, but who&#039;s counting?

And sure, Koizumi hasn&#039;t kept the bureaucrats at bay (what happened to the LDP think tank?) My old boss comlpained that his inauguration speech in 2001 was mostly written by kanryo. But I would argue that in the case of CEFP, the election system, etc Koizumi simply used the tools that were made available to him by his predecessors and made them work. 

Good point about the FSA - it&#039;s interesting to see them work to position themselves as Japan&#039;s SEC, which is, I believe, a worthy thing to aspire to. Not only that, in any government - and perhaps especially so in Japan - it&#039;s imperative to maintain public confidence in the financial system. Even though the MOF is recognized as a relic of the war era, it&#039;s still got an essential role to play.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sun bin &#8211; thanks for clearing that up. Any idea what&#8217;s going on in the photo itself?</p>
<p>Mulboyne &#8211; Basically, I think Murphy is wrong about his claim that economic reforms are mere window dressing &#8211; this is a flaw that reminds me of van Wolferen (no such thing as a Japanese government, every policy is an abortive &#8220;nonpolicy&#8221;). As your examples show, there is most certainly a host of policy challenges facing Japan, and the debate over which path to follow is often waged between ministries rather than in the Diet or among public interest groups. Sure, Japan has no intention of rocking the international financial system, but that doesn&#8217;t let Japan off the hook for finding ways to stay competitive and fight stagnation in the runup to its demographic crunch, for starters. Things like removing government employee status from 260k postal workers aren&#8217;t horse and pony shows for Washington &#8211; they have real consequences that, handled badly, could spell doom for the ruling party and the bureaucratic stranglehold on power in general.</p>
<p>For one thing, the <span class="caps">GOJ</span> is much more transparent than it&#8217;s ever been. Major developments include the advent of <span class="caps">FOIA</span> requests and public comment procedures. Also, during the Koizumi years a wealth of government stats/white papers have become available for free online. These developments give private groups and opposition leaders more tools with which to force transparency from the government. Of course, the first two were basically pushed through by the US, but who&#8217;s counting?</p>
<p>And sure, Koizumi hasn&#8217;t kept the bureaucrats at bay (what happened to the <span class="caps">LDP</span> think tank?) My old boss comlpained that his inauguration speech in 2001 was mostly written by kanryo. But I would argue that in the case of <span class="caps">CEFP</span>, the election system, etc Koizumi simply used the tools that were made available to him by his predecessors and made them work.</p>
<p>Good point about the <span class="caps">FSA </span>- it&#8217;s interesting to see them work to position themselves as Japan&#8217;s <span class="caps">SEC</span>, which is, I believe, a worthy thing to aspire to. Not only that, in any government &#8211; and perhaps especially so in Japan &#8211; it&#8217;s imperative to maintain public confidence in the financial system. Even though the <span class="caps">MOF</span> is recognized as a relic of the war era, it&#8217;s still got an essential role to play.</p>
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